Racing: Looking for a change of script on Sequel Saturday

by Chris Riordan

Flemington gets a bonus Sequel Saturday this week with the dual Group Ones, Australian Cup and Guineas, icing an already interesting Blamey Stakes card. The VRC has done the right thing in offering free admission and hopefully a bumper crowd will witness the last really good meeting before focus shifts to Sydney – where there’s an excellent Randwick programme highlighted by the Sweet Embrace, Skyline, Guineas, Challenge…it is just a ripper day to go to the races. It is tough to gauge how horses will back up from last week’s drama. My neighbourhood (Flemington) is still gun-shy from the storm so it is possible that some of the runners will have been disturbed whilst others front up ready to race again. Regardless of the conditions, my punting form remains abominable; a consideration when reading my musings.

Unfortunately it is a 10 race day and punters should pick and choose.

Perhaps my opening bet may be Zauberin in Race 3. Up in class but awfully unlucky last outing.

I might then have a penny on Seek the Star at huge odds in a terrible Race 4 of 2600m plodders.

Were I not working though, I’d not bother going until about 2pm and then watch the last (straight) 6.

The Vic Plate (R5) is a good field but I’m sort of committed to my best bet of last week so will butter up again on Estee. Plenty of chances including Lady Lynette, Bird of Fire and Flying Tessie.

The Blamey (R6) is very interesting and we expect to see Freeza return to do battle with Betstar now that his beloved Hissing Sid is again at the barriers. Dao Dao is short in early markets but expect punters to rally to Vigor whose form in this sort of race is outstanding. Plenty of other chances including Raffaello and Rightfully Yours. Incredible that this wide race is not a Quaddy leg.

There are two schools of thought for the Guineas (R7). Many see Denman as unbeatable and he’ll definitely be odds on. But his Spring Caulfield flop has some good judges looking for an upset and there are some terrific horses making up the nine starters. Linton has burst on to the scene authoritatively but I don’t like backing horses in “afterthought” features. Set for Fame has been too good for the girls and will have the fav’s back. She’ll have plenty of support. Bart’s Rock Classic also has some claims, though may be better off with more give in the ground. Hanks, I suspect, is on an AJC Derby prep.

The Australian Cup (R8) is not a particularly good Group One and the likely favourite, Heart of Dreams, has become a bit of a bridesmaid but still seems to have the measure of most of these, especially if it is hard to make ground. Here I must pause to offer my sympathies to knacker contributor Elvis, who has a good eye for a roughie and a fateful relationship with misfortune. Elvis told us all to get on Our Aqaleem for the Cup and put his dough on long ago at huge odds. Had the race been run last week, who knows…Alas, the horse was today injured and destroyed. Elvis will still find an exotic combination and an indomitable spirit so I feel compelled to contribute to the pool. Sirmione in my multis.

The straight dash (R9) is a raffle but a good race. My early inkling is for Devil May Care (13) but there are plenty of chances with plenty of convictions.

I’ll be backing Confidence Reef in the last. Stillme and Georgia’s Boy have unmistakeable claims.

Good luck to anyone having a bet. Get to HQ if possible (free entry) and be sure to keep an eye on the Sydney action, particularly the Slipper aspirants. As always, I’ll be in the main ring with Turfbet and happy to give top flucs to all who come up to say hi.

My early tips then are; (1) 4 , (2) 8 , (3) 7 , (4) x , (5) 8 , (6) 2 , (7) 1 , (8) 5 , (9) 13 , (10) 7 .

Comments

  1. Crio

    I appreciate your eloquent, heart felt commiserations, but as Ernie the homing pidgeon has told me on more than one occassion, “losing builds character” A bit less character and some more folding would suit me better right now though.

    Early thoughts will see me trying Morgan’s SERIOUSLY GOOD in the first.

    I will follow up on DELTA GEE in the third

    I concur with you regarding after thoughts in the Guineas, but I am still prepared to have a lick at LINTON. One they get past 1599 metres, Black Bart’s are always a chance so I will save on ROCK CLASSIC

    The Blamey is a welter. LORD TAVISTOCK for me, over from NZ. (What’s a Hindu?……Lays iggs bro)

    The Cup is open to something rough. The Denham camp is smart and I will be trying TOBIQUE along with DIVINE REBEL and EXTRA ZERO. The omen bet after the Hayes misery is SHOCKING

    That is about as far as I have come from initial perusal.

    More in depth form study and the chance of a dream will see me contribute more.

    Comment: “I have Alzheimers, but at least I don’t have Alzheimers”

  2. Crio,

    The last straight six!!!!!

    “What you talkin bout Willis”?

  3. Elvis,
    Poignant comments as always. I’d not show until the last six races…and they run a “straight six” punters pool for those who find picking a winner too easy! Hence the convoluted phrase.

  4. Crio,

    Thanks mate,

    Shock horror, I thought for a moment that the next Newmarket was going to be around a bend and the Straight Six to be renamed the Mostly Straight Six

    Phew.

  5. Relax Elvis.
    and be heartened.
    I see Our Aqaleem has been commemorated for tomorrow’s meeting with the track renamed in his honour….

    track dead

  6. Crio,

    I see the humour in that. I have character.

  7. Back to the races…any pointers for Sydney?

  8. Shocking has been scratched by the way.

  9. Elvis/Crio,
    If the Blamey is a Welter, then let me on VIGOR. Beat Typhoon Tracey last time at Flemington over the same trip and also 2nd up. She’d be $1.30 in this race.

    A couple of roughies have jumped out at me already (which is a bit of a worry as there’s way too much time for more).
    Race 5, number 5- KEEPING SCORE. I love backing fresh horses who have good fresh form and she fits the bill. Won 1st up last time at 1400 carrying 59kgs and beat No Jurisdiction 1st up previous prep. Definitely worth a crack at around $30 especially if they are able to make some ground from the back (which they couldn’t last week other than Faint Perfume who is one out of the box).

    The other one is Happy Glen. Most have jumped off him due to recent “poor form”. I put this down to him being run in unsuitable races mainly at 1200m. Back to 1000m at Flemington he is also over the odds at around $25. I do think GRAND DUELS is the one to beat though.

    Other than those, still not committed. There was a good tip around last week for BARBARICUS so expect to see positive moves for it tomorrow and could get a cushy run up front. LITTORIO might be ready to show its best which would be good enough to win this.

    Not sure on the DENMAN v the rest scenario. Did take a quaddy last week leaving him out and duly collected but that may be somewhat misleading!

    Agree that tomorrow is a day not to be missed – especially with free admission which means you’re starting about $20 up!

  10. Crio,

    Just had a look at Randwick and it is a very good meet. The 2yo’s are all purple breds or if not, have good recent form. Keno.

    The Guineas. I get good Perth mail here and the word is SIR HALLOWELL is very good and is with a very smart conditioner. I also like LEICESTER SQUARE at odds and I think CAPTAIN SONADOR is a genuine talent.

    I have a lot of time for HONEST TRUTH and I think he will win the Strada.

    Very very interesting day.

    Good luck.

  11. Elvis,

    How you get good Perth mail when you are at the other extremity of the country is a true talent – though your ability to turn live horses into dead ones just by backing them is eerie!

  12. Budge,

    You know me, the bit about Perth mail is just a rouse to tip and back a WA horse. Old habits die hard. Though having said that, the good ones who go East very often warrant the trip.

    On the second note, I didn’t realise at the time that I was actually taking the $34 that Our Aqaleem would survive my investment.

  13. Obviously under the odds.

  14. mark freeman says:

    Nearly fell off my chair Crio to see you’ve found Seek the Stars. It’s the only bet I’ve had tonight (picked up $81 fixed for a cuttla bucks ew). Although I did notice you’ve selected nothing in that race in your later selections listing so your confidence isn’t any higher than mine.

    The only early double I’ve got still running is a Denman-Heart at $20, but you never get em when they end up faves.

    Sid will keep for the Bool, but I will speck Diamonds at Dawn given he’s tough and HQs (mostly) straight five always plays like a six.

    And boys you’re clearly on fire tonight. Sorry to hear abt the OAq bet Elvis. Have a question for you though – was Alan Eskander anywhere near Flemington Thursday morning?

    I’ll be taking first fours that include Guru Bob in the minors in the Guineas, and trifectas involving Littorio, Miss Maren and Zagreb.

    And I’m with whoever mentioned Vigor. Surely cut above.

    Good luck

  15. mark freeman says:

    Omen bet of the day.

    At Bendigo yesterday, race 6 winner: Tenzing… race 7 winner: Sherpa.

    Tomorrow, Flem R9 No.13: Sherpa Tenzing. Get on.

  16. Peter Flynn says:

    Makybe,

    Nice one.

    Keith used this omen this morning (6 hours after your post) in his Quirky Corner.

  17. Crio,

    with a bit of poetic licence noting the Bullies big win you could add ‘site’n Saturday nite’. Well done. Enjoy the moment. Winners are grinners.

    Phantom

  18. Phantom,
    The Bulldogs’ form is like mineon the punt. An inconsequential win really doesn’t make up for years of failure but it somehow makes you think that good times are here and that we are, as you say, “winners”. Losing on the punt is disappointing, but the Bulldogs losses were bearable until they somehow became associated with extinction! Going and enjoying was not enough!

  19. Shocking day on the punt but so close to being OK. Left Denman out of the Quaddie and only missed on Zipping (only for 5% though!). Did manage to get the 2 roughies and had the field in the last leg so could have been a great day but There You Go (Atilla/Espadrille – look it up!).

    Of course the aptly named, Be Positive, gets up this week when I had it going for over a thousand a couple of weeks ago when it got beaten a lip. What a stupid name!!

  20. Don’t start that negative deflection stuff Crio. That’s my call with the Cats. We all saw what happened on Saturday night.

    I don’t subscribe to this unimportant pre-season cup jibe. Winn’em and wear’ em. I’m not a betting person but I reckon you have missed the bus for the good odds stakes.

    The Dogs are dinky di this year and will take some running down.

    I do however see there may be a problem relating to atrition of good Doggy forwards. If Big Bazza takes out one a week you may start to feel the pinch in about mid May.

    Refer to the sublime voice of Judy Tsuke on the Morcheeba album “Dive Deep’ (track one)and relate it to last Saturday night et al.

    ‘But oh the road is long the stones that you are walking on are gone.

    With the moon light to guide you feel the joy of being alive
    the day that you stop running is the day that you arrive.

    And the night that you got locked in was the time to decide, stop chasing shadows just enjoy the ride.”

    My understanding is that the Doggies supporters definately got locked in on Saturday night. Enjoy the ride. Phantom.

  21. No negative deflection Phantom, just putting NAB trophies in their place. Lid is off for the real season and I didn’t miss the odds – backed the Dogs weeks ago for the Flag!

Leave a Comment

*