John Kingsmill’s Footy Diary

The Winter Solstice
When the little people start grinning

I’ve consulted the Predicator again
and I am here to tell you that the Big P
never lies. We’ll need thirteen wins to make
the eight this year. St Kilda and Essendon

will fall short. The Swans, Carlton and Freo
will have nervous times but they’ll make it.
The Woods, Adelaide, Hawthorn and the pests
from the West, the Eagles, are the current bullies

in the pack. Geelong’s perched between
the good and the ugly. And here’s something
else for free. Those involved with Gig’s
Ladder Ladder will need a lesser tally than 25

to collect the lollies this year.

Round 23 Ladder, 2012

1     Collingwood 20-2
2    Adelaide 18-4
3    Hawthorn 17-5
4    West Coast 17-5

5     Geelong 15-7
6     Sydney 13-9
7     Carlton 13-9
8     Fremantle 13-9

9      St Kilda 12-10
10    Essendon 12-10
11     North Melb. 10-12
12     Richmond 9-13

13     West Buldogsl 8-14
14     Port 7-15
15     Brisbane 7-15
16     Melbourne 5-17
17     GWS 2-20
18     Gold Coast 0-22

Give or take the percentages.

Comments

  1. Andrew Fithall says:

    Hmmm. JK – Do you have some inside knowledge? Are GWS to be found guilty of a crime resulting in their forfeiture of points already gained?

    I don’t share your confidence in Collingwood going through the remainder of the regular season without a loss.

    AF

  2. pamela sherpa says:

    Dear John , I have taken note of your predictions in the sincere hope that I will be able to say ‘YOU WERE WRONG”

  3. John Kingsmill says:

    ANDREW
    Thanks for spotting the mistake. Switch GWS and GC, of course.

    As for Collingwood finishing the rest of this season unbeaten, are you prepared to predict, right now, out of WCE (twice), Fremantle, Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, St Kilda,, Sydney, North and Essendon which teams, if any, will beat them in the next eleven rounds?

    Can you name those teams now?

    PAMELA
    That’s an easy call. In the whole of my life, I’ve never been right.

    AN ASIDE
    I remember, once, in the early years of putting the FA together, JTH often complained that writers filled their reports with predictions, rather than analysis. Or sensation. That was a grumpy complaint, I thought. Sport is predicated on prediction, if you will excuse that awful grammar. The whole point of watching sport is wondering which way the ball will bounce and what will happen in the next quarter.

    I predict that Black Caviar will win on Saturday night/Monday morning by less than two lengths.

    It won’t matter if I’ve wrong. There will be plenty more things to predict as soon as that race is over.
    Sport is the instantly self-duplicating hidden energy in the universe. If we could make electricity out of it, the climate would be cooled over night.

  4. John Kingsmill says:

    I meant Saturday night/Sunday morning, of course. It would be nice, in the next upgrade of this site, if posters had a chance to edit their silly mistakes

  5. Andrew Fithall says:

    Are you sure you are not an economist?

  6. John Kingsmill says:

    Don’t dodge the challenge, Andrew.

    Name the teams that will beat Collingwood during the rest of this season.
    Accept my invitation to share this foolishness.

  7. Neil Belford says:

    John – In general I agree with you predictions, but I dont think the leaders, and the pies in particular are going to be that far in fromt of the pack, although I think they will be top(ish) – percentage is going to be everything in that regard this year.

    But this year – what a year – is the year the cycles got shorter. It not taking two seasons, its not taking a season, its not taking half a season, its taking a month for a dominant side to get worked out and picked apart. This season plan B is everything, this season entries into the 50 is a meaningless stat, this season is ‘total football’.

    Collingwood is about to have its turn at being unravelled, but I think they have one more win left and then Freo and Hawthorn will beat them because they outplay them, the Cats will beat them out of habit. I think Adelaide and WC are set for a bit of unravelling too.

    Predicator mark 2. :)

  8. John Kingsmill says:

    NEIL

    I agree with nearly everything you say. This is a year of monthly pretenders. Seasons within seasons. I agree too, about the unravelling. On the other hand, I think Collingwood were unravelled last year in the GF. This year, I am not that sure that anyone else has the depth or cohesive ability, from this moment forward, to take them down.

    I’ll watch the Woods against Freo and Hawthorn with renewed interest. Thanks for your post.

  9. Andrew Fithall says:

    Okay JK. Collingwood will lose to Hawthorn and Sydney (who have not beaten Collingwood for quite a few years) over the next 11 rounds.

    And the CPI for the June quarter to be announced on 28 July will be 0.7%.

  10. pamela sherpa says:

    John , I’m hoping your prediction is wrong because of the Bombers possible/predicted slide. We had a major slump last year around this time. It’s a long season so lots can happen yet. Will be very interesting to see how coaches manage their players from here on.

  11. In a year of monthly pretenders, Chris Scott’s preference for the Cats to peak in round 22 should be just about right. Another great move by the Super Coach.

  12. bowchamp the magnificent says:

    Last weekend, during all the sheer excitement of the North Melb vs GCSuns, I also found the time to do my did my Round 22 finishings.

    My finals contenders (after noting that Round 17 is THE all-important & deciding round):

    Adelaide 80
    Collingwood 72
    West Coast 68
    Essendon 68
    Sydney Swans 60
    Hawthorn 60
    Geelong 56
    Richmond 52
    Carlton 52

  13. Melbourne 5-17, that will take some effort. Yes they’ve beaten Essendon, and it is June, but the other 4 scalps? GWS ths weekend could be the first one, but who else?

    Geelong, they have a hard run home, and 15-7 wil be a mighty fine effort. True they’re 7-4, and have not played particularly well but 9th,10th are strong posibilities. Who was the last premier to miss the following year. Collingwood 90-91?

    Glen!

  14. Glen,
    Essendon !994, Adelaide 1999 and Hawthorn 2009 have all accomplished this feat since the Magpies in ’91. The only one I was confident of without checking was Adelaide.

  15. Matt Webber says:

    How much will St K rue close losses to Port, Freo and Richmond? All winnable. All contingent on a mad moment here and there or a 50-50 decision going this way rather than that.

    Could easily be 10-4, sixth on percentage and a real shot at the four given some of the tough games others have in store.

    Every season has a story like it.

    Tough ol’ game.

  16. DBalassone says:

    Fair point re Saints. North Melbourne could also be 10-4 having had very narrow losses to Essendon, Port and The Eagles. (They also had an unexpected loss to the Dogs). Richmond has had a couple of narrow losses too.

    It’s one of those seasons.

  17. Matt Webber says:

    Reckon Riewoldt (Nick that is) was spot on when he said it’s all going to come down to the wet sail.

    Team on the right roll at the right time wins.

    Not sure ladder position has much to do with it this year beyond giving a couple of sides the chance to lose at an inopportune time without penalty.

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