Harms Election Watch- Round 3

So Julia Gillard looks at the numbers and sees she’s caught a snake. It’s like watching Norman at Augusta. She sees Action Tony on the ladder. So Julia says she’s going to throw the rulebook out. Why did she subscribe to it in the first place?

Julia Gillard sees that people have been reading the Betfair Politics blog and have worked out that even the drop-kick sports columnists, usually preoccupied  with the pig-leather (whether it be round or oval or shaped as a saddle) have more idea than the Labor machine. In fact observing the machine makes us put more on, and we’re counting the cash as the Coalition’s odds tumble in.

Tony Abbott was in to $2.46 for a moment the other day, and Julia out to $1.68.

So now you all have a green book with healthy wins on both sides. My advice: don’t stuff it up from here. I think the odds will flatten out for a while. I’m leaving it for a couple of days to see what the impact of Julia’s determined break-free approach is. And then I’m only playing with half the available dollars. Put $100 in your sky rocket and play again.

You might like to factor in Craig Emerson’s performance on Q and A on Monday night as well. More on that later this week when I try to tackle the pineapple factor.

When you do get back to assessing the odds there is a key consideration. If you turn up to watch your footy team just a few minutes before the final siren, does that win you support, or do we all scratch our heads. Is Julia Gillard a real supporter, or does her arrival very late at the Bulldogs game do a bit of damage?

Although that has to be considered that the machine got the photo it wanted – with Barry Hall – and that was front page all over the place.

Betfair odds:

ALP                 $1.55

Coalition         $2.76

Harms odds:

ALP                $1.66

Coalition         $2.50

About John Harms

JTH is a writer, publisher, speaker, historian. He is publisher and contributing editor of The Footy Almanac and footyalmanac.com.au He has written many columns and features for numerous publications. His books include Confessions of a Thirteenth Man, Memoirs of a Mug Punter, Loose Men Everywhere, Play On, The Pearl: Steve Renouf’s Story and Life As I Know It (with Michelle Payne). He appears on ABCTV’s Offsiders.

He can be contacted j.t.h@footyalmanac.com.au

He is married to The Handicapper and has three kids – Theo9, Anna8, Evie6.

He might not be the worst putter in the world but he’s in the worst three.

His ambition is to lunch for Australia.

Comments

  1. John Butler says:

    It’s strange how we all expect politicians to be spinning us, yet when one comes out and explicitly fesses up, it seems like a bad idea.

    I suspect this says a lot about how much credulity we’re prepared to suspend in order not to have to think about certain issues.

  2. Personally I don’t think it matters all that much who wins the election. Both Parties are ideological wastelands, immoral in their desperate attempts to win the sluggish, sloppy Australian middle class. And the Greens are the modern day Democrats; they’ll disappear like all one idea Parties eventually do.

    I say it doesn’t matter who wins because the Yanks are bankrupt, the Chinese rely on the Yanks to purchase their crap, and we rely on the Chinese to buy our stuff under the ground. The Yanks’ interest repayments on their debt now add up to 14% of their GDP. This is terrifying. They stop spending, the Chinese stop making, and we stop mining. When the music stops I fear we might be without a chair.

    JTH – can you frame a book as to when the double dip recession commences? I reckon $8 before Christmas, $2.50 before next July.

    Hang on to your hats.

  3. Clearsighted says:

    I agree, Dips, with your reference to the “…sluggish, sloppy Australian middle class.” We are rapidly becoming a society which is morally flabby around the middle. The economic structure and dilemma of our culture is a reflection of this.
    A media blackout for all pollies, I reckon. Put them all on the back of a truck and have them work the hustings in their respective constituencies. But we first must do the same in regards to our own lives and the meaning we do, or do not, find in them. ie. consider our own fibre, or lack of it, without spin or airbrushing.
    While we live in a society which values Smeg stoves in the kitchen, spikey plants in the front yard, and retail as recreation and therapy, we are fuschnickered.
    I’m sounding like my parents – and perhaps that is not a bad thing.

  4. i reckon you should never vote for anyone who wants to be elected. Come election time a van drives through an electorate. A bloke with a net grabs 6 randoms off the street. These chosen have 6 weeks to devise a strategy and sell it. Any signs of collusion = 6 years jail. If you get the gig your serve the term. kiss babies open fetes yada yada. finish your term with honour and set for life. Be corrupt or compromised by any system and death or better still stocks in city square with rotten fruit etc. Its only a very underdone theory at this stage but…..

  5. Chalk,
    I’m confused. But, then again, I’ve just watched the Dogs! Its an unusual election here in Flemington, without “Roscoe” Tanner’s mug leering from every second front yard – never saw him press the flesh – and the prospects of Labor not winning this seat for the first time ever..the mail from some bloke outside a bar in Darwin was that the Greens would win (I’m not joking, and i took him seriously!).

  6. I’m a little confused that the Greenies are painted as some sort of evil that will bring the world down.

    I know a few. They don’t eat their babies. Most (all) the ones I know are honest and have jobs and love their mothers and don’t go around threatning to burn down the houses of those of other political persuasions at polling booths.

    The reason that they are up and about in many areas is identified in various parts of the previous comments. People are sick of taking crap from politicians with the party noose around their necks.

    Realistically the green thinkers don’t expect to form government but they do want some of their policies considered. Climate change, deforestation, sustainable energy etc. They have capitalistic and social values.

    The current paradigm is that you can only make mega bucks from polluting industries and exploitation of any resource that the good lord gave man, yes man, it’s the good old boys running the show..

    A paradigm shift to make money out of more sustainable activities does not go down well with the “Greedies” as they are geared up in one direction and have the pollies in their pocket.

    It takes thousands of litres of water to grow 1 kilo of rice for example. It is totally unsustainable in Australia. We should buy it from place like Vietnam. By helping their economy we can creat more stability in that region. We could put the water into the Murray Darling system so the poor parched South Australians get a bit.

    If you had spoken out about the oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico 10 years ago you would have been shot. A lot of other industries are now stuffed because of incompetence, or worse.

    By having alternative views that are presented with a bit of clout (Tasmania’s) hung parliament there are reforms and compromises being made all the time. It is happening here. The labour party are pulling their horns in all the time and the Libs are in behing the greens on several key issues.

    It may not last for ever but it is useful at times.

    It is not all bad. Just common sense but those with vested interests just won’t let go.

  7. johnharms says:

    Phantom,

    I’m thinking commune. Within striking distance of Bridgeport (Barnbougle really). Fish off the beach. Clear running Boag’s water. Chicken parmas for Sunday lunch.

  8. Oui, Citizen Harms. Vive La Revolutione!

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