Guineas Day Preview: There’s only one Timmy Cahill

Greetings all,

 

The world game might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but the World Cup qualification process has everything you want in sport.  Much angst about the penalty paid to the Syrians in the first leg – a rough decision probably but the Socceroos were falling apart in the last 20 minutes so conceding was not a surprise.  Then Mark Milligan’s deft touch to give them the opener in the return leg was a disaster, lucky to have occurred in the first five minutes.

 

The cometh the hour cometh the man and once again Tim Cahill displayed his prowess at “putting it in the onion bag”.  The team has played well through the series except for a distinct lack of execution in the final third.  A man who does not get much club game time played the full 120 minutes and delivered both the equaliser and the winner.  Everyone will have their opinion on where Tim Cahill sits in the pantheon of great Australian sports people.  He might play a game that is not the top of the pops here, but it is the game the world plays and the world knows Tim Cahill.  For me he is in the postcode of the very best and beyond sport he is a great Australian!

 

My Goodness, My Guineas

 

It’s Caulfield Guineas Day but not getting all the clean air it usually gets with The Everest to be run in Sydney.  A fair amount of argy-bargy between the administrators of each state surely, they should look to work together and get some synergy rather than the squabbling that has taken place.  Nevertheless, there are two great programs set down for contest with four group one events at Caulfield and a fantastic line of sprinters for The Everest.  Personally, I am not a big fan of the concept of The Everest – copied from the American race The Pegasus which has been run and won but is now struggling to get buyers for the next renewal.  The Everest administration was a bit smarter selling three years up front.

 

Last week the main result was academic with Winx blowing away the field, reckon she had gears to go!  Ventura Storm put in yet another nice trial for the cups.  Humidor was left smokin’.  A small trifecta in there.  The last two legs of the quaddie proved difficult as anticipated.  While the Spring Champion was dominated by Ace High the second selection.

 

Now for Caulfield a great support card on the program especially the Herbert Power providing a ticket to the Caulfield Cup.  Keen on Gallic Chieftain in that one.

 

The big ones open up with a little one, only eight fillies contesting the Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo SW Fillies).  Not sure the MRC has the scheduling right for this race.  I do think GSOB has the right horse though with Alizee (2) thinking the Sydney form is pretty good.  Booker (3) and Shoals (1) ran the quinella in the prelude ahead of Catchy who will almost run favourite against the boys, so they will be competitive.  Might be some value in Leather’n’lace (6) who should take some catching.

 

Race 6 Selections – 2-1-3-6

 

A more popular renewal of the Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA) this year.  Last year saw Winx have a track gallop with a couple of escorts, this year it is a very competitive contest spiced up with four internationals making their first appearance in Australia.  Not sure if any will feature in this race, but they are worth following in the cups.  The internationals that win cups usually have at least one lead up race in Australia.  Hartnell (1) had the mantle of the second best in the land but might have given it up once Bonneval (11) crossed the ditch.  The satchel swingers have down to those two, if Hartnell (1) can control the race I think he could turn the tables.  Gailo Chop (2) is not far off them and Calderon (5) the pick of the foreigners at this distance but probably wants some more rain.  Would rate Jon Snow (6) after winning at Moonee Valley, just not sure how good the field he beat was.

 

Race 7 Selections – 1-11-2-5

 

The Stallion Maker follows up with the $2,000,000 Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo SW), it might not be the stallion maker if Catchy (16) can salute.  It was all pretty simple till the preludes where both Catchy (16) and Royal Symphony (6)failed to fire.  Thinking they can both be excused and this is their grand final.  Royal Symphony (6) did finish off well and is my selection but not with the confidence I had two weeks ago.  Loved the finish of Salsamor (13) in the Stutt Stakes, might be looking for more ground but will be steaming home if they go hard up front.  Godolphin could double up the Guineas withKementari (11) who is going nicely and has Damian Lane as the pilot.  Could ride a rocking horse to victory at the moment, currently has a 20% strike rate for the season!

 

Race 8 Selections – 6-16-13-11

 

The big handicaps are always difficult and the Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP) certainly meets that criteria plus the handicapper had done his job with $6 the field.  My top pick is Comin’ Through (4) got held up in the Epsom when fancied and was excellent in the previous start.  Might have had Egg Tart (9) on top but she missed a run so may not be quite ready, could have the egg on my face afterwards.  Loved the runs of Tosen Stardom (1) and Sovereign Nation (14) in the Rupert Clarke, would have rated them both higher if not for the poor barriers.  The chances do not end there and will be a wide leg of the quaddie.

 

Race 9 Selections – 8-9-1-14

 

Royal Randwick

 

Because of the nature of the race The Everest (1200m, WFA) does not have any status.  However, I am not sure we have seen many better line ups than those that will greet the starter.  Would love to see Chautauqua (1) do it again, he is finishing off well and they will go like the clappers, I am just not sure he is right at the top of his game.  The Hayes clan have three in the race with Vega Magic (2) as favourite, David Hayes can’t split him with Redkirk Warrior (4).  If he can’t split then Redkirk Warrior (4) represents better value.  He will have to hold out the flying filly in She Will Reign (10) and with only 51kg on her back she just might, her win in the Moir was incredible!  Redzel (3), Clearly Innocent (5) and English (9) all genuine chances to reach the pinnacle.

 

Race 8 Selections – 4-2-10-1

 

Quaddie Time

 

If you can find them at this time of year it’s worth it, but blimey they are tough.  Will be going with the 2-pronged strategy one quaddie with just Hartnell and Bonneval in the first leg and the other going a bit wider in that leg and may get a nice collect.  The top three and Salsamor in the Guineas, wide in the Toorak and Sheidel in the last one out.  Keep the cost down and we can lay off if we are lucky enough to have survived.

 

Q1 – Go Hartnell, Go Bonneval

Leg 1 – 1,11

Leg 2 – 6,11,13,16

Leg 3 – 1,4,8,9,10,14,15

Leg 4 – 9

56 Combinations, $20 will return 36% of the dividend

 

Q2 – Go the dividend

Leg 1 – 1,2,5,6,10,11

Leg 2 – 6,11,13,16

Leg 3 – 1,8,9,10,14,

Leg 4 – 9

150 Combinations, $10 will return 6.7% of the dividend,

 

Have a great weekend,

 

Go The Warrior, Go Timmy!

 

Cheers, Sal

Comments

  1. Apache Cat says:

    Thanks and good work, Sal. Feel your love for Timmy. We all share it.

    Lonhro had a fabulous record at Caulfield. Went into the 2001 edition of the Guineas in the shadow of stablemate Viscount and whipped them from the rear. Kementari is being touted as a chip off the old block. Certainly looks the part. Tomorrow we will see.

    The Toorak has never been the same since they retired Umrum but is still Melbourne’s toughest and best handicap over the mile. Egg Tart gets in nicely. Suggest you have a bite.

    Should have won the Schillaci in ’09. Who remembers Lucky Secret anyway? Reckon Super Cash might just squeeze past Sheidel tomorrow.

  2. You’ve left Petrology out.

  3. Well, that was pleasant. Best place win since Wilson’s Prom ran third one Cox Plate Day at 150/1. Bookie would only give me 30/1.

    Petrology $23.50 with Ladbrokes.

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