Gigs’ Stats Round 11: Seven into Six DOES go

Stats Entertainment – Round 11

by Andrew Gigacz

A SCENARIO THAT COULD LEAVE MANY AT SIXES AND SEVENS

The weekend results have thrown up an interesting ladder “midfield”, with five teams bunched together between 8th and 12th with a 5-6 record. If we add the following Round 12 potential results to the mix:

North Melbourne defeats Carlton

Hawthorn defeats Adelaide

Essendon defeats Geelong

Port Adelaide defeats Sydney and

Brisbane defeats the Western Bulldogs,

then we will have seven teams locked on 6 wins and 6 losses, covering 6th to 12th places on the ladder.

THE EXTRA STEP

But why stop at having seven teams equal on the ladder? Take a look at the following scenario, which shows the potential winners in each week of rounds 12 to 22.

Those who know me will be well aware of where this is heading.

Yes, those results will give us sixteen teams on 11 wins and 11 losses after Round 22. All I need to do now is work out the appropriate scores for each those games so that all sixteen teams have a percentage of 100.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!

Having come this far, it seemed a shame not to go one final step. So, below is the same set of results, apart from just four, highlighted in pink.

What do those results give us? Almost the same thing, with a couple of minor tweaks. With the founders of the Footy Almanac in mind, this ladder gives Geelong one less win and has them finishing last. Sorry Mr Harms, but I’m sure you won’t begrudge that scenario, given Geelong’s recent success. And for John’s partner in crime, Paul Daffey, it gives Richmond an extra win and has them finishing, yes, ON TOP OF THE LADDER!

Tape those plastic membership cards back together, Tiger fans – it’s still possible!

TON UP BUT DOGS DOWN

The Dogs knocked up a ton with their late surge on Sunday evening. But their final score of 16.7 (103) was not enough to snatch victory for the Pies. The game was an example of a dying breed of footy matches, being just the sixth contest this year where both sides made it to triple figures. That’s only half the number we had to the same stage last year.

And check out how it stacks up against Round 10, 1982, a week in which ALL SIX losing teams cracked 100.

So is footy better now than it was back in 1982? Well, the average margin this year is lower than it was in ’82, and we’ve already had three 1-point ball games this year, compared to just two in the entire 1982 season. On the other hand, the 1982 Grand Final did feature a female streaker…

NINE-ALL

And speaking of streaks, the Bombers appear to be on one of their own, with the loss to Sydney being their second consecutive 9-point game. There have now been four such games this year, which means that 9-points now shares the lead with 3 points and 36 points in the race for the Marginal Medal.

1 VS 100

Still on margins (and many would say that I live my life on the margins of sanity) and North’s last-gasp win over Brisbane was the third 1-point result this year. It means that 1 now holds a 3-2 lead over 100+ in Eddie’s favourite competition.

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?

If you think the difference between 100 and 63 is 37, then think again. Right now there is no difference between them, at least according to the next paragraph…

SCORE WARS

Port Adelaide’s effort against Hawthorn on Sunday wasn’t totally in vain. Their final score of 8.15 meant that 63 now shares the lead with 100 in Score Wars. Both have shown up five times so far this year.

2-2 HOODOO STILL RINGS TRUE-TRUE (AND THIS DOGS SUPPORTER SAYS “BOO-HOO”)

The 2.2 quarter-time hoodoo  mentioned in this column in Round 9 shows no signs of letting up. Just as happened on the Sunday of that round, three sides this week turned at quarter-time with their score on 2.2 (14). Those three teams, Melbourne, Essendon and Footscray, all ended up losing.

THE OMEN

I don’t often stray outside the confines of Aussie Rules when talking footy, but I feel it my duty to warn anyone considering putting some hard-earned on Germany to win the World Cup. Note well, soccer freaks: no country has EVER won the Eurovision Song Contest AND the World Cup in the same year. Germany: G-A-W-N.

POSTCODES OF THE WEEK

Collingwood’s first half on Sunday was followed up by a big third quarter that allowed the Magpies to build a break of more than 40 points over the Dogs. Now that sort of margin is deep, aptly reflected by the Pies’ quarter and half time score combo of 3.3 and 8.5. 3385 is the postcode of DEEP LEAD. But a lead of over 40 points will leave no old Magpie fan comfortable. Everybody knows that the Bob Rose-coached Collingwood led by more than 40 points in the third-quarter of the 1970 Grand Final. 3385 happens to also be the postcode of somewhere called ROSE’S LEAD.

And the Collingwood lead was indeed whittled away, although the Pies did manage to hold on in the end. So what caused the turnaround? Most experts have identified it as the move of Brian Lake out of defence. From the moment he went forward, Collingwood appeared to be mesmerised by his every move. Little wonder, then, that their quarter-by-quarter goal tally of 3-5-8-1 is the postcode of LAKE CHARM.

RIDICULOUS ANAGRAM OF THE WEEK

A simple question this week, on the back of one of the most talked about stories of recent times:

Will the signing of ISRAEL FALOU lead to A LOUSIER AFL…?

About Andrew Gigacz

Well, here we are. The Bulldogs have won a flag. What do I do now?

Comments

  1. Andrew Fithall says:

    A lot of talk about Israel Falou. What I have heard recently, from a very good source, is that Geelong have done a deal that he will actually move to Geelong. The second part of the rumour is that he will take on the vacated number 29 jumper with Ablett going to the Gold Coast. I am not sure how many people are keen to see Israel in the Gazza strip.

  2. Dave Nadel says:

    Brilliant, Andrew!

  3. Andrew Fithall says:

    Gigs,

    Great work again. Being a former resident of Lake Charm (just north of Kerang for those who care)I was very pleased with that reference (although I would prefer that it had been mentioned because its postcode was 3589 – for obvious reasons). As for the the forecast of match results for the remainder of the year, I am probably just one of many who says “how on earth did he work that out?”

    Andrew

  4. Lucas Garth says:

    Pies also won the Robert Rose Cup in the same match (plus another needless medal for Pendlebury), and yes 44 points at the very start of the 3rd in 1970 is correct.

    But a Richmond minor premiership and Geelong wooden spoon would be the greatest thing to happen to footy since…since… I can’t remember when

  5. Gigs – love it. Still can’t come to terms with the fact that mathematically the Tigers could finish on top. Mathematically could they be relegated to second division?

  6. Steve Healy says:

    very good stuff Gigs, have you noticed that this season after every club has played the Bulldogs they have put in a poor effort the following week?

    Apart from Collingwood’s flukey win over Melbourne by a point in Round 2, every other club has lost the following week after playing the Bulldogs, a great example of this was in round 4 when the lions beat the dogs at the gabba but got thrashed by the demons at the MCG the week later

  7. Tom Burns says:

    Excellent Andrew!

  8. Gigs,
    North have just fallen into the top 8 with a percentage of less than 80%. When was the last time a team with such a low percentage was in the 8?

  9. Good question, Budge. I’m on the case and will get the answer to that for you.

    I can tell you that it has NEVER happened in this millennium. The lowest percentage in the last 10 years after a completed round was Richmond’s, who after Round 13, 2006, were 8th with 7 wins and percentage of 83.7. They went on to finish in their favourite possie at season’s end.

    As I type Hawthorn are 4 goals clear of Adelaide so it’s unlikely North will still be in the eight by round’s end – unless Sydney loses by about 340 points, or the Dogs lose by about 460 points – which is a shame ‘cos it would be an excellent stat!

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