Gigs’ Stats: Hey, 4.16, did anyone ever tell you you’re mathematically beautiful?

RIVALRY ROUND LOSERS PROVIDE A TOUCH OF NOSTALGIA

With St Kilda providing stats and facts galore in their record-breaking season, it’s nice to be able to report that the beaten Blues, the down-and-out Demons and the wasteful West Coast provided some statistical news for us this week. The three sides provided us with some classical inaccuracy, kicking 4.16, 6.14 and 8.18 respectively. While we only have to go back as far as Round 14 last year to find the last occurrence of 6.14 (Sydney in their Homebush loss to Collingwood), 8.18 hasn’t been seen since North kicked it (as a winning score) against Freo at Subiaco and Round 13, 2005. To find the mathematically beautiful 4.16, we need to go way back to Round 3, 1995, when Richmond achieved it to defeat Hawthorn (who kicked 5.4) at some place called Waverley Park.

SCORE WARS

No change at the top of the leader board this week, with 85 sitting on 11, three clear of 90. 50, 61 and 96 made their first appearances for the season, leaving 78 and 113 as the only two unregistered scores between 60 and 120 this year. Funnily enough both of the scores were attained in the 1993 season at some place called Waverley Park.

CARLTON ON THE EDGE – AND ON THE FENCE

While 4-goal totals are usually seen once or twice a season, Carlton’s effort rates a special mention as being the first “picket fence” (a goal per quarter – 1, 1, 1, 1) registered by any side since North Melbourne achieved the feat, coincidentally also against Collingwood, in Round 9, 1988 at some place called Waverley Park.

GOOD OMEN OF THE WEEK

You know that last stat? The picket fence was also achieved by some team called Footscray against Essendon in the year – that’s right – 1966. Good Omen of the Week is now almost exclusively the domain of the St Kilda Football Club.

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES

The top 10 teams on the ladder are in currently in descending order of percentage. As normal as that might sound, it’s the first time since round 15 last year (excluding round 1 when it is mathematically certain to occur) that it has been the case.

THIS WEEK’S LOOPY LADDER

Here at Gig-Stats, we do every thing within our power to stretch the bounds of credibility. With that in mind, we can tell you that if the winners over the next five weeks are those listed below…

Picture 38

…then the following Round 22 ladder will result:

Picture 39

That’s nine teams, from 3rd to 11th, finishing equal on twelve wins, just half a game between the bottom five sides and St Kilda and Geelong level at the top. I say bring it on!

POSTCODE OF THE WEEK

An honourable mention to North Melbourne who commemorated the fortieth anniversary of the moon-landing by scoring 3233, the postcode of APOLLO Bay, but this week’s postcode goes to Hawthorn, who appeared to be on track for victory on Saturday when defender Brent Guerra bobbed up in the forward line and kicked the first goal of the last quarter, putting the Hawks 28 points clear. History shows that Geelong came back to snatch a one-point win. A turn-over by Guerra earlier had gifted Cam Mooney a goal. Guerra, originally from the Bendigo Pioneers, was recruited by Port Adelaide and then St Kilda as a forward. Perhaps that’s where Hawthorn should leave him. Certainly, their quarter by quarter goal tally (3, 5, 5, 1) seems to suggest that. 3551 is the postcode of some place called Bendigo Forward.

CLIFFHANGER TRIPLE-TREAT

After a dearth of one-point games and draws until a couple of weeks back, the last three rounds have provided some great cliff-hangers. Three of this week’s games ended up in margins of less than a goal. The last time we had three margins of a goal or less in the one week was in round 16, 2006. Incredibly it was the fifth such occurrence in that season.

1 v 100

An update on what is rumoured to be Eddie McGuire’s favourite part of this column. The second one-point margin in three weeks has given 1 the edge over 100-plus. There have been two 1-point margins this year compared to one of 100 or more. Last year 100+ had a clear 5-2 victory over 1.

THIS WEEK’S RIDICULOUS FOOTY ANAGRAM:

It’s happened regularly throughout the year and it did so again on Saturday night. The media and fans talk up a forthcoming “blockbuster” involving St Kilda and a team seen as a potential challenger. Back in round 7 it was Collingwood, last week it was the Crows and on Saturday night it was the turn of the Western Bulldogs. In each case, the blockbuster has turned into just another thrashing at the hands of the mighty Saints. The clue to how these games are going to turn out is actually in the word blockbuster. (And this is for all you mobile-phone-savvy texters out there.) BLOCKBUSTER is an anagram of STK CLOBBER U…

About Andrew Gigacz

Well, here we are. The Bulldogs have won a flag. What do I do now?

Comments

  1. johnharms says:

    Gigs

    Superb.

    But you are so mode-centric.

    I am interested in mean and standard deviation of a) final scores and b) margins.

    No, really, I am.

    JTH

  2. Steve Healy says:

    Great stats Gigs.

    I think that it’s worth noting that West Coast have scored 17.38 in Derbies this year.

    In Melbourne V Sydney the first two quarters had identical scores. 4.6 by both teams.The second quarter saw 3.5 kicked and last quarter saw 4.5 kicked. It would have been amazing if the quarter by quarter scores were 4.6, 4.6, 4.6 and 4.6.

    I remember Carlton had a “picket fence” in Round 4 2007 when they scored 4.15 against West Coast.
    Even though it was only Carlton’s lowest score against Collingwood since Round 18, 2002 when they scored 4.9 33, you have to go back 98 years, in the same round, when Carlton scored a “picket fence” against Collingwood. In 1911 at Victoria Park they scored 4.17 41 in a 14-point loss. Their quarter by quarter score was very familiar to the one on Friday, (1.5, 2.10, 3.12 and 4.17). Only one point differences at each change.

    I also found it interesting that Adelaide scored 19.18 to Port’s 9.8. Do you know they the last time was where team’s scores were like that? (with 10 goals and 10 points more than their opposition)

  3. Josh Barnstable says:

    Did anyone get a chuckle out of Nick Dal Santo’s comment on AFL Game Day on Sunday? He said that the best statistic that points towards a St Kilda premiership is that every time Richmond and North Melbourne have drawn in a season, the Saints have won the Grand Final. EVERY TIME! That’s just once haha but still a good stat. He might be out to steal your jobs Gigs and Steve :)

  4. John, you’re right. My spreadsheet does actually include the mean and medians. I just couldn’t figure out a way to make them interesting or funny. But here you go. By popular demand: The average score this year so far is 91, the median 90. The average margin is 33, the median 29. Average winning score 108, losing 74. Median winning score 107, losing 75. Standard deviation. OK, I’ll add that to my to-do list.

  5. Steve, you’ve out-statted me. I thought there had been a more recent picket fence but I missed it when scanning the scores. I discovered the 2007 part of my spreadsheet doesn’t have all the quarter-by-quarter scores in it. Great pick up by you and I stand corrected! Thanks.

  6. Josh, I missed Nick’s comment but I did mention the Richmond-North draw thing in last weeks stats. Maybe Nick reads them! If does then he should know that an anagram of his name is “A non-stick lad”, which is appropriate for someone who gets out of tackles so well!

  7. And back to you John. The average and median scores show that we’ve lost a goal per game per team this year. Last year’s average and median were 97 and 96 respectively. I guess the up-side of that is that the average and median margins have gone down also.

  8. Danielle says:

    i really like the title of this piece, its so romantic!!
    i wish a guy would come up to me and say:
    “did anyone tell you, you’re mathematically pretty???”
    HAHA :)

  9. Josh Barnstable says:

    You would just die if Nathan Brown said that to you, wouldn’t you Danielle? Haha :)

  10. I’d be happy if someone came up and said it to me. Usually people come up to me and say “has anyone ever told you you’re insane?

    Danielle, it wasn’t my title. I think Paul came up with that. I always knew he was a hopeless romantic…

  11. Danielle Eid says:

    HAHA well its awesome!!!
    im told that im insane all the time!!
    cant help it if people catch me on a ‘good day’
    Josh: yes..i would die, what else could i do?

  12. Josh Barnstable says:

    Don’t worry Gigs, your insaneness (if that is a word?) is used to its full potential with all these great stats!

  13. Danielle says:

    Josh:
    yer..i think i would like PASSOUT!!
    and then die hahahahha!!
    what else would you expect me to do???

  14. Josh Barnstable says:

    Haha maybe one day he’ll say that to you. Ya never know

  15. Danielle says:

    You know what Gigs?
    im going to add that to my list of pickup lines!
    1. how you doinnn???
    2. so come here often??
    3. if i could rearrange the alphabet i would put ‘u’ and ‘i’ together.
    4.did anyone tell you, you’re mathematically pretty???

    Haha cant wait to test these out!!

  16. Steve Healy says:

    Gigs:
    I’m sorry i had to correct you.
    What’s this spreadsheet you have?

    Danielle: Putting u and i together is the most hopeless pick up line ever hahaha.

    Josh: What do you think about Adam Simpson retiring?
    He’s gonna finish on 306 games, just like a champion Demon player.

  17. Danielle says:

    STEVE!! lmaoo ill have you know that i like funny guys and when a guy said that to me i was very impressed!!
    TIP: Girls LOVE a guy that can make them laugh!
    :)

  18. I always liked Eliott Goblet’s line (you guys are too young to remember him). He reckoned he memorised the Melway reference of every street in Melbourne. That way when he met a girl and asked her where she lived, when she said “Alfred St in Blackburn” he could say “well that’d be on Map 48 of the Melways at B9”.

    That would impress you Danielle wouldn’t it?

  19. Danielle says:

    …no that would confuse me!!
    id be like…
    “okay..STALKER MUCH, BACK OFF LOSER!!”
    i would also call the cops expecting him to be hiding outside my house or something!!
    guys should NEVER ask a girl where she lives, its kinda freaky!!
    hahahhahha
    Danni

  20. Don’t worry Danielle. The guy was a comedian and that was one of his little jokes. He also once said that rather than get involved in the toilet-seat-up/toilet-seat-down argument, he preferred to leave the seat at a 45-degree angle…

  21. Steve Healy says:

    That’s if you’re stupid enough to say where you live in the first place.
    Is that reference actually real Gigs?

  22. Josh Barnstable says:

    My mate came up with the best pick-up line he thinks: “Is your name Gilette? Because your the best a man can get!” which comes from the shaving brand Gilette. So totally unfunny!

    Steve, i’m sorry to say that i don’t know who the Melbourne player who finished on 306 games is. I’ll take a stab in the dark and say David Neitz? But anyway, Simpson retiring now instead of the end of the season is a bit confusing to some, but i can understand why. He’s going to bow out against the side he grew up barracking for as a kid, and he’d rather go out under the big lights of Friday night in front of about 45,000 people instead of finishing at AAMI Stadium in Round 22 against Port Adelaide in front of a crowd of about 20,000.

    Oh and Danielle, if you want some more pick-up lines, me and my mates have MILLIONS! They make me laugh every time i hear them say it lol :)

  23. Danielle says:

    Steve, a guy did ask me that once. i had known him for like 10 minutes and he asked i all i said was:”i dont live near here”
    next thing i knew he was tellling me about how his mum makes him pay the rent and waht time he woke up. by the end i was jsut tuning his voice out.
    he was a stunner but he wouldnt shut up!!

  24. Danielle says:

    OMG JOSHH !!!!! AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Thats a keeper!! omg…hahhahah!!

  25. Josh Barnstable says:

    You really think so??? It’s so stupid!! He laughs his head off whenever he says it. Oh well i’ll have to better him.

  26. Danielle says:

    if you want to better him i suggest guitar lessons!! girls go crazy for musical guys!
    …i just imagined nathan brown playing his guitar for me… ohhh WOW!! dyingggggggg!!

  27. Josh Barnstable says:

    I play a bit of guitar actually…not much though i learned it a while back but i’ve forgotten how to play haha. Would you imagine Russell Robertson playing guitar for you? Because he seems to be playing guitar these days more than he takes speckies.

  28. Danielle says:

    haha..well it wouldnt be as pretty!
    you should get back into the guitar playing. i can see it now you playing your guitar on a sunny farm with Nathan Brown kicking a footy in the back and me complaining about my hair or something!!
    HAHA random i know

  29. Josh Barnstable says:

    Yes very random haha. Nah i’ve lost my touch lol and plus there’s no time for me to be playing guitar these days.

  30. pauldaffey says:

    Josh and Danielle,

    Just to digress for a minute, the editing process (such as it is) for the above piece led to a conversation with Gigs about portmanteau words and his letter to The Age after a Catherine Devenny column in 2007.

    It would be selfish if I kept the letter to myself so here’s the link (scroll down to the fifth letter). Let’s just say it confirms the theory of Oliver Gigacz that his father is mad.

    Danielle, if you and Nathan Brown get married and you hyphenate your surname, you’d be like the Van Morrison song, a Brown-Eid girl.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/letters/theres-more-to-the-i-do-than-meets-the-eye/2007/09/05/1188783317206.html?page=fullpage

  31. Just to add further weight to the notion that I am in fact insane, when I first saw Danielle’s surname my immediate reaction was to check the phone book to see if the surname “One” existed. It does, meaning that Danielle, if you marry the right person, you can remain a One-Eid Collingwood supporter.

  32. Peter Flynn says:

    Josh and Danielle,
    Enjoying your articles and repartee.

    Gigs,
    A momentary digression.
    I suspect the 39.5 point line betting has come about through a long-term average winning margin calculation.
    How has the average winning margin been behaving over the last few years?
    If it turns out to be less than 39.5 points, we won’t tell the bookies.

  33. Peter, don’t tell anyone but both the average amd median margin have been under since at least 2005. Average in that time between 33 and 36. Median between 25 and 31.

  34. Peter Flynn says:

    Thanks Gigs,
    As suspected.
    Shhhhhh.

  35. Steve Healy says:

    Yea Josh it was Neita I should have just said it straight out, and thanks for saying that I have a stats job in comment 3.

  36. Danielle says:

    GIGS
    Trust me i will always be a
    One-Eid Collingwood supporter no matter who i marry.

    PAUL:
    Brown-Eid girl?? you cant get any more accurate than that!!

  37. Danielle says:

    i would like to point out that my surname:
    Eid, is pronounced the same as Rodney Eade.
    im thinking of keeping my surname and then adding my husbands on the end.
    Danielle Eid-Brown.
    i dont even like my first name! to this day i still complain to my mother for naming me ‘Danielle’ onyl because it always turns into ‘DANIELLA!!’ even WORSE!

  38. John Sandy says:

    Gigs, first time reader at recommendation of one P.J. Flynn. I love it, particularly the beauty of Cartlon’s picket fence last week! The best I can add is a recent example that goes against the old adage that the team who kicks the most goals wins. Inverloch – Kongwak 8.6 (54) def by Phillip Island 7.13 (55). I suspect this would happen occasionally but picked it up a couple of weeks ago.

  39. Thanks John. There have been a few such cases over the years, even a few where a side that’s kicked two fewer goals have won. I’m planning on doing a piece on such games at some point.

  40. Steve Healy says:

    Here’s one for you that I remember,

    Round 12 1999,

    Melbourne 14.8 92 defeated by Kangaroos 12.21 93.

  41. Steve Healy says:

    And Gigs I’ve been working on my anagrams,

    We all know emotion flowed at the Dome last night,

    Adam Simpson is an anagram of “Sadism Amp on”.

  42. Steve Healy says:

    And Gigs I’ve been working on my anagrams,

    We all know emotion flowed at the Dome last night,

    No wonder Adam Simpson is an anagram of “Sadism Amp on”.

  43. Peter Flynn says:

    Steve,
    Nice anagram.

    Gigs,
    1948 drawn GF must figure in your analysis:
    Essendon 7.27.69
    Melbourne 10.9.69
    I reckon there’ll be a three goal game or two floating around. Not sure about a four goal game.

    Slightly off topic, in 1968 Carlton won the flag 7.14.56 to Essendon 8.5.53.

  44. johnharms says:

    Amazing coincidence Gigs.

    Geelong 14.9.93 d Adelaide 13.13.91

    A few years ago

    Adelaide 15.3.93 d Geelong 12.18.90 in keeping with the current theme. (G. Whateley’s first radio call I reckon)

    JTH

  45. Pamela Sherpa says:

    Gigs,Loved your letter to the Age- Hilarious.

  46. Peter, yes what a great score that is. 7.27 to 10.9 – and they LOST the replay! Could’ve had 17 flags, one ahead of the Blues. And to make it worse, a year earlier, they lost the GF by a point to Carlton – 11.19.85 to 13.8.86! Now, if they’d won that GF and the drawn one, they’d have 18 flags to Carlton’s 15.

  47. John H, thanks for that stat. How’s your heart holding up after the last two games? And those nerve-wrackers on top of the Brad Johnson post-siren miss earlier in the year!

  48. Steve, great anagram. It was a bit of a sadistic performance by the ‘Roos forwards in the last quarter last night!

  49. Thanks Pamela! That letter is now enjoying a second lease on life!

  50. Peter Flynn says:

    Gigs,
    Some near fours from memory.
    Geelong 9.28.82ish vs Richmond 13. something (Mother’s day 1990)
    Collingwood 11.heaps just loss to Geelong in the mid 70’s (75 or 76) at Kardy Park.
    Might have been the day that R Wearmouth ran up the wrong race and was beset upon by Cats.

  51. johnharms says:

    Gigs

    Do I recall a game where Hawthorn kicked over 40 behinds?

    JTH

  52. Steve Healy says:

    Yep,

    25.41 191 to St.Kilda 16.7 103 at Princes Park, Round 6 1977.

    And thanks for putting my piece up John (or Paul).

  53. Peter Flynn says:

    Well done Steve.
    Nice get. I remember that.

    On a goals to behinds ratio where the number of goals kicked is greater than one, I seem to remember Fitzroy kicking a score of something like 2.27 against Geelong in the 1920’s.
    If that’s right, the 1:13.5 ratio would probably be clubhouse leader for inaccuracy.
    I also reckon Geelong kicked 30 odd behinds the day Featherby got leather poisoning at the G (1981).

  54. johnharms says:

    PF

    Geelong kicked 1.31 to Norwood’s 0.0 in 1880 to decide who was the finest team in the colonies. Behinds were slightly different then. The story of that weekend is a classic. I wrote about the Norwood visit in a Geelong history once. I think I also put it in the 150th book essay, just released.

    JTH

  55. Daniella,

    I went to school with Itchy Eid, so I’m aware of the pronunciation of your surname, but I just liked the Van Morrison twist.

    Our French teacher at school, the incorrigible Roland Fortis, was one of those francophiles who thought everything the French did was right (even though he was Egyptian). He pronounced Itchy’s surname Aye-eed, which is ridiculous. I bet Mr Starkie never butchers your name like that.

    And while on many behinds, I think Bill Brittingham kicked 2.11 in that famous 1948 grand final. He was pushed back to full-back on the arrival of John Coleman the following season.

  56. Josh Barnstable says:

    What about last night? Collingwood kicked 12.23, with 3.9 coming in the last quarter.

  57. Danielle says:

    PAUL…WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT!!
    i HATE it when i get called DANIELLA!!
    Danielle is bad enough, some teachers manage to pick up and call me Danni because they hear me friends call me Danni. i have thought about just telling all my teachers to do so, but so far only ONE of my teachers picked up on that i prefer being called Danni.
    its come to the point that i hand up work with Danni written on the top but they still call me Danielle!
    Mr. Starkie is nice, he doesnt teach me and doesnt call me DANIELLA like some people!

    My new nick name with the gals is ‘Crunchie’ this is because i bag my friend for being Blonde and call her Heidi so she says on the inside im secrectly blonde just like the chocolate Crunchie!
    i insult her by saying: “ohh shutup blonde!!”
    and she returns the favour by saying “whatever Brunette!!”

    our hall way gets a little CRAZY!

  58. Josh Barnstable says:

    Daniella! Why would you hate the name Danielle? I hate it when all the teachers at school call me Joshua. So annoying.

  59. Danielle says:

    so are you telling me that you ctually like my name? because that my friend is weird!! i was named after Mums favourite author Danielle Steel.
    Joshua is a cute name, its on my list of possible names for future children!
    Josh seems more like a surfer dude name.

  60. Steve Healy says:

    Peter,

    Yea it was Round 6 1928 at Corio Oval. Geelong scored 19.8 122.

  61. Peter Flynn says:

    Steve,
    Good detective work.
    Fitzroy had two more scoring shots and lost by a lazy 85 points.
    You don’t see that happen every day.

    John,
    I was wise to add the g>1 condition looking at Geelong’s kicking against Norwood.
    I need to read more about 19th century Geelong football.

  62. Josh Barnstable says:

    Yeah Danielle is a good name. Joshua is good for a little kid but i’m not a little kid anymore!

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