Finals Week 2 – Sal’s Preview: Stop Making Cents

Greetings All,

 

A great start to the finals and a couple of incidents in them that put the AFL’s lack of leadership and abrogation of responsibility as custodians of the game at the forefront.

 

The news wires melted as Josh Caddy apologised for the language he used in Thursday Night’s game towards Daniel Howe and James Frawley, a tick there for the AFL.

 

What about the push right in the middle of Howe’s back that forced him to the ground off the play, completely unnecessary act that went unpunished and directly in front of the umpire?  Then on Saturday Mark Hutchings made the mistake of conceding a free kick to Josh Thomas, as he rises Adam Treloar decides retribution is required runs in and bumps him to the ground.  Also directly in front of the umpire and no action taken.  This Bulldust Bravado has been allowed to develop at AFL level and naturally filters down to lower leagues and juniors.

 

Witnessed such an incident last week – where a player made the mistake of conceding a goal from kicking the ball out on the full.  That penalty was not enough so an opponent laid a heavy bump on him after the ball went through knocking him out for the rest of the game.  Ultimately a penalty was handed down to the offender.  Not sure it would have happened at all if the AFL got serious about removing this type of behavior from the top level.  Fines are not enough, what about a freekick in the goal square for such actions.  Pretty sure that will put an end to it pretty quickly!

 

Unsurprisingly they have got on the front foot about Toby Greene’s feet.  Protecting space is an important skill and one that Toby is most adept at.  The notion of “duty of care” for your opponent has entered into the footy vernacular, under that guise it is important that all players take heed.  It is an action that we do not want to see in lower levels.

 

Just don’t like agreeing with Eddie McGuire, on the finals fixturing can’t help but agree with him.  Footy has been played forever with seven days between games surely that should really be the minimum requirement.  Giving Richmond the Friday Night final and West Coast the Saturday just makes no sense given the challenge of travel back from Perth will make that break akin to a six day break should the Hawks or Demons win.  Ed’s direct gripe on behalf of the Pies is more than reasonable – with the winner of the Pies-Giants having to face the Tigers off only a six day break.  Can’t wait for the Blues to have Ed’s problems.

 

Now for the knockout matches!

                      

 

$3.20 vs $1.46

 

The Demons form of chaos footy was too much for the Cats, will the control of the Hawks be able to reign them in?  Simon “The Likeable” Goodwin has pulled his team together to win three crunch games after many questions on how they would fare against the best.  Meanwhile “Thaddeus” Clarkson had won six on the trot before meeting the Tigers last week.  McEvoy’s battle with Gawn will be critical, if the Dees can get their hand on the ball first it will go a long way to set this up.   The loss of O’Meara certainly hurts the Hawks in this area and puts a massive load on Tom Mitchell, suspect Shaun Burgoyne might need to spend more time in the middle – he is one of best clearance players we have ever seen.

 

The double agents play important roles for their teams now, James Frawley leads a pretty inexperienced defense while Jordan Lewis does similar for Melbourne he is also intimate with inner workings of the Hawthorn machine.   The Hawks need a few of their big name players to lift, Bruest and Burgoyne would be ruing missing their shots at goal by “that much”.  We all know in the long run control wins over chaos pointing to a Hawthorn victory as we saw back in round four.  The Hawks are missing “Maxwell Smart” O’Meara suspect this one will be more like Camp Gitchie Goomee Noonee Wa-Wa with the result for Hawks having to wait till the next episode – in 2019.  Demons by 26 points.

 

Blameless ($1.65) vs The Karate Kid ($2.52)

 

Despite last week’s loss no one has paid the price at Collingwood.  Is this just the best 22 available or was it an “honourable” loss?  Happy to accept it was the latter, the selected team is heavy on midfield talent but light on at the extremities.  The Giants lose Kelly, not sure they lose much if Griffen can play his role.  The selection of Keefe is interesting – it might be to provide ruck support, could also be to play on Big Cox and release Phil Davis as the spare defender.

 

If the Giants talent up forward dominates it will make it tough for Collingwood, all six are very dangerous.   For the Pies to win they need to win the footy at the source and not let it down there.  In Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Treloar and Adams they have the personnel to do that although Ward, Coniglio and Shiel are no slouches.  The Pies will have the crowd in their favour as well as the possibility of a wet MCG.  If the Pies get on a roll early they will romp away, not sure they will do that but do expect them to get over the line by 17 points.

 

Friar Time

 

The Friar Reserves played a terrific game to take out the premiership and complete a very successful season for the Friars.  Four teams in finals and two pennants.  The senior premiership went to UHSVU the only team the Friars did not beat all season.  We look forward to 2019 with confidence, with more health and continuity should be in the firing line again.

 

Horsing Around

 

Group one races in Sydney and Melbourne sees the 2017 Cox Plate quinella lining up 800km apart.  The mighty Winx has scared off plenty with her trainer Chris Waller providing most of the competition, Humidor takes on a much broader field at Flemington.

 

Flemington Race 7 – Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m, G1, WFA)

 

Kementari (11) and Humidor (3) ran the quinella in the Memsie and that form looks pretty good for this, right up behind them was Kings Will Dream (10) who will appreciate the extra 200m and is undefeated at Flemington albeit in lesser company.  There is much more depth in the race than those so the hunt for value is on!  Comin’ Through (6) made a brilliant return a couple of weeks ago at Randwick, Grunt (12) will appreciate getting back to the expanses of Flemington.  Kementari (11) can win if he gets a better run, though for value I suspect we will see great improvement from Grunt (12).

 

Selections – 11-12-3-10

 

Royal Randwick – George Main Stakes (1600m, G1, WFA)

 

Just cannot call a race the Colgate Optic White so the George Main it remains!  Winx (6) wins.  Her heir apparent Unforgotten (8) won first up brilliantly and should head the rest.  She was chased home by Ace High (5) who I am tipping to break up the CJW procession which will be followed by Egg Tart (7).

 

Selections – 6-8-5-7

 

Quaddie Time

 

A typical Flemington quaddie – wide and difficult.  Open up with a tough Mares races so we will go wide, the Makybe Diva is open but will stick to those picked plus Happy Clapper.  Try and get thinner in the third leg making sure the inside and outside of the straight are covered.  Finish of skinny in the last with a shorty as favourite.

 

Leg 1 – 6, 7, 8, 11, 13, 14

Leg 2 – 1, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12

Leg 3 – 2, 3, 6

Leg 4 – 10, 15

 

216 Combinations, $30 Investment, ~13.9% of the dividend

 

For the wife, daughter and the bandwagon – Go Dees!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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Comments

  1. The Get Smart Match – I like it Sal.

  2. Andrew Walker says:

    Any thoughts from anyone on the fact that the AFL must be the only lot on the planet who play semi finals when there are 6 teams left in the competition!

  3. Sal

    Nice get on the two margins. I hope you had a dabble.

    Tough quaddie though.

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