Drawing on past lessons

by Mark “Makybe” Freeman

The big one is all about levering that lovely dead money in the tote trifecta and first four pools, punters.

It’s about taking the opportunity to cream the healthy dividend off all the once-a-year types making selections based on cat’s names, gran’s birthday’s and fave colours.

And while personally I’ll be trimming placing selections to give me a better percentage of a big wide trifecta/1st four, I’ll be making sure I include a small percentage bet which includes some fields in the holes so that if we get a Mercator or Zazzman in there, we’ll reap a very healthy dividend.

The Zazzman example is the best lesson on this. In 2004, the year of the match race between TGM – The Great Mare – and the horse rated as the world’s best stayer – the Dermot Weld-trained Vinnie Roe – it was easy to put these two on top and take the field for third.

But if you needed to trim the field, one of the first you would have turfed out would have been Zazzman, which was a duffer in the going.

As TGM put paid to Vinnie (on ground that suited him perfectly by the way), Zazzman held on for third. I remember looking at the tote board, being all over that trifecta a number of times, and thinking $250.40 is probably fair for a 5-2 pop beating a 7-2 pop and a roughie (with third in betting, possibly Pentastic, about 12s).

But when I refocused the Duff goggles and saw it was $2504 … sensational.

So, to Daff’s Cash: I reckon there’s four genuine winning chances – Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop and Shocking.
I’ve added Shocking after re-watching the JRA Cup and Herbert Power videos – although he largely caused the trouble himself, he was unlucky in both and hit the line in similar fashion to Alcopop, albeit three lengths in arrears. His barrier won’t help, but if he lucks into a smooth run in transit he has the ability to win it.

So we’ll add Mourilyan and Leica Ding as place chances, and take the field for third, then flip placings around:

Cup Trifecta: 1, 6, 11, 21 / 1, 5, 6, 11, 21, 24 / F  $50 = 11.4%

And also: 1, 6, 11, 21 / F / 1, 5, 6, 11, 21, 24  $50 = 11.4%

Comments

  1. MMF

    Like your thesis, and strategy.

    The Zazzman scenario is illustrative. Exceot in 1992: The Zero and Veandercross. Stood them to run first and second, field for third. Castle Tonw. Tri paid $115. The 330/1 Queenslander ran fourth, beaten in a head bobber, and I think the first four paid $65000. Well that’s how I remember it.

    Also had Might and POwer and Markham to run first and second. Markahm was baulked about 8 times down the running, They ran first and third of course. Ripped off.

  2. Makybe,
    Mail from the pub that Sid will run in the QE on Saturday. Sacked or loyal?

  3. Mark Freeman says:

    Hmmm will be hard to stay loyal Crio after the MV Cup effort. Heard from the same source that said gave us the Secret Flyer tip (wish I hadn’t heard that one!) that connections thought he just didn’t handle the valley, but it was the way he fell back through the field early that was the worry.

    You’d reckon Vigor would go around in the QE and win on his ear.

    Am excited about Saturday – Australia’s best sprinter will be going around in the Group 1. Will be my big go for the spring

  4. John Kingsmill says:

    It’s a race of two.

    1,4 / 1,4 / Field = $44
    Field / 1,4 / 1.4 = $44
    1,4 / Field / 1,4 = $44

  5. Mark Freeman says:

    Nailed it boys, will report in later, but Daff is rolling in it.

  6. John Kingsmill says:

    Hot!

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