Crio’s tip: to win more, put more on Onemorenomore

After the fiasco at Caulfield, my faith in the betting ring as central to a day’s racing was restored at Moonee Valley where a massive crowd bet ferociously on what was the busiest day I’ve had on the bag in memory. Despite the early shorties arriving, the value was good, you could lay plenty of horses and, when the results came, we won. Some didn’t, but the Vase and the Plate were good for us and The Sportsman was the mayo. Lady Lynette was heavily backed to win the last, renewing punters’ hopes as they head to the marathon at HQ.

 
I’ve effectively retired from the punt as all form and luck has deserted me. Flemington is traditionally a ripper week for Bookies, so I’d best hitch my bag and start grabbing money.
The Derby’s always a great day and gets serious hype. The four Group Ones can vary a bit in worth, but the support card of Group Races bristles with quality, particularly the last which again is a fascinating and challenging end to the Quaddy.


If I wasn’t working (and thus there at 10!) I’d be arriving for Race 3 to watch the fillies. Very keen on Faint Perfume but think the Bart factor might have her at unders. Just watch.

 
The sprint is wide open. I’m disappointed that this race was re-badged and moved. As the time-honoured Ascot Vale Stakes it and the Craiglee set the pace and form for the following Carnival. As the Coolmore it lacks the glamour and billing but, with Group One status, attracts a crack field. As it continues to pour here in Flemington, Phelan Ready’s hopes rise. But I am a Wanted fan and will be on board Moody’s brilliant 3yo.

 
The Mackinnon can be a jumble of milers hoping and two milers practising, so finding the 2000m WFA winner has its difficulties. Cheering for Vigor. Would back Scenic Shot if forced to punt.

 
A good Derby but still an odd race. This week we have again had the chorus of questions as to why run 3yo Colts over 2500m this early. When the Vase and Plate winners decline to run, there is something clearly wrong. I’ll back Onemorenomore as it is over the odds and a classy colt.

 
The Mares’ Mile has developed in to a fantastic race in recent times. Most of my early spruiks have fallen away. I’ve long thought this to be the target for Hot Danish, but I’m concerned she might have had enough. Typhoon Tracy’s barrier and odds are off-putting and I’m starting to revisit Neroli from a good marble and some give in the track. This course drains effectively so won’t be affected, but at least it won’t be a road. Having said all that, I’m going to back Gold Water as the mare on the way up. Don’t leave her out of your multiples.

 
The Salinger is its traditional cast of deserving contestants, but it is impossible to make a case against the fav, First Command.

 
A raffle to close the day. Largo Lad.

Comments

  1. Peter Flynn says:

    For what it’s worth:

    Race 1 Kidnapped
    Race 2 Bart to run a dead-heat so he gets 5 in the Cup
    Race 3 Run for Naara or Bart
    Race 4 Demerit
    Race 5 Rangirangdoo or Vigor
    Race 6 Rockferry or Monaco Consul
    Race 7 Typhoon Tracy (I like Lady Lynette)
    Race 8 First Command
    Race 9 Being quite inebriated by this juncture I could even bring Largo Lad from the Sacked Club.

  2. Crio – fabulous summary. I’ll do some cutting and pasting and stick it on my study pin board for the week end. If it ends in tears I can blame you.

  3. Race 2: I’ll be following up on Reprisal

    Fast forward to Race 4 and Honest Truth is on the way up, with the toppies perhaps heading in the other direction.

    Race 5: Rangirangdoo looks an ideal 2000m Mecca horse to me, though such good recent form usually puts me off (strange I know) He’s by Pentire who I’m tipping will have a good day.

    Race 6: A Pentire race to race double. Rockferry is the youngest horse in the race by almost a month, not turning 3 until the 22nd of Nov. He is however a brother to Xcellent who I think was a freak and I reckon he is close to a good thing. In agreeing with Peter Flynn, the only danger is Monaco Consul, by the sire of C.P. winner from half to Military Plume. A classic NZ staying family. The odds of 2 half brothers winning consecutive Derbys(Shamoline Warrior) is greater than what the bagmen and the tote will offer combined.

    Race 7: Could Zarita make it 3 in a row for Pentire. Tricky race. I half like her but have more confidence in Crio’s selection; Gold Water

    Race 8: Pretty keen on Olonana, but have a gut feeling about a thing at a millions. Mr. Slick. If he runs a drum it will be akin to backing a 30 to 1 winner.

    The last: Occidentalis. Unknown form aside, he has a very smart trainer and NZ’s boom apprentice who I think has only the one ride. Each way get out with cream.

  4. Elvis,
    Please elaborate. Some great speculations. We should be gathering at the Vic Hotel tonight for a reminiscence!

  5. Crio,

    How would you like me to elaborate? I like the idea of the Vc gathering. Maybe next weekend when I am in sporting heartland.

  6. Elvis, dont mind me asking but id your name really Elvis?
    and were you names after the man himself?

  7. Danielle,

    Good question.

    If by “The Man”, you mean Elvis Costello, the answer is yes. If in fact you refer to Jailhouse Rock, fried beanut butter sandwiches and shooting up television sets, the answer is a definitave no.

    When I leave the building, nobody really notices.

  8. Elvis/Alby,
    You could start with Mr Slick. It appears to have my batting history as its form.
    Was lucky enough to briefly meet its trainer, young Con, at the Valley last week. Wish it and you well.
    Will definitely catch up for a beer if you are down next week.
    CB

  9. R4 you have gone for Honest Truth. Its a race in which you could make a case for most of them. Shellscrape appears to have beaten it comfortably last start so should be in your selections?

  10. mick geary says:

    crio,
    good luck tomorrow. been mad here, kids can’t believe it’s spring carnival already. there’s talk of the six of us heading to healesville picnic races tomorrow – don’t suppose you field out there? just left makybe in a bar in town (don’t expect much from him tomorrow). word is hissing sid is lining up in the queen elizabth next saturday – as a result i’ve no fav going around tomorrow. we’ve got a couple of quaddies going around, hoping lady lynette salutes again.

  11. Crio,

    The sun is eternally 30ft from your face here so it is always difficult to get your head around a wet track. I have rightly or wrongly based my selections on a decent track and Shellscrape is now 3 from 3 on slow. Shellscrape has done a great job, as has his sire, but give me a lightly raced Hussonet over a 13 start Dane Shadow every day.

    Mr Slick. Trainer has a more favoured runner entered also. Forget the selected, back the neglected. I detest Brisbane form at the best of times, but this horse has won 8 with 7 2nds from 22. 2 poor runs were in the 10,000 and the Stradbroke, both on unsuitable heavy tracks. I don’t know, I just kept looking at it thinking this race could throw up an odd result. As a gut feeling though, I agree it migt be cheaper just to take an Alka Salza but I have to try him now.

    Did you mention you were you lucky enough to brefly con it’s young trainer?

  12. ohh thanks Elvis.
    yeah i was thinking along the lines of Presley.

  13. Crio,

    I have just re read my submissions and I apologise for far too many spelling errors. As an ex proof reader, I will give myself an uppercut.

    One other thing. Where are all the good 3yo fillies. The select races thus far, including the Group 2 tomorrow, are crap.

  14. Mick,
    Has Makybe been celebrating The Hok’s birthday (last week)?
    No chance of Healesville picnics for me as I’m at HQ all days bar Thursday.

  15. Good points Elvis.
    We’ve had rain but Flemington dries and it will be the designated DEAD4 unless Makybe Diva needs a gallop in which case they will drench the track and tinker the weights!
    Con Karakatsanis backed his horse with us last Saturday and I recognised him and had a chat. He was so excited and a genuinely nice fella. Wish him well.

  16. Heavy shower about to hit Flemington.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR024.loop.shtml#skip

    Crio, how much rain needs to fall before it makes a real difference?

  17. Crio,

    Thanks mate, and thanks for also subscribing to the biased Makybe Dive conspiracy theory that has eaten away at me for 4 years too long.

  18. Danielle,

    I have given your query more consideration and you were actualy on the right tram. Elvis Costello (AKA Declan Patrick McManus) concieved his stage name from combining Elvis (as in Presley) and his grandfathers surname (Costello)

    Still no announcement when I leave the building sadly though.

  19. Gigs,
    Track ratings and bias stress me. We had 6 hours of good rain this morning which would have saved Mick the curator from watering. Flemington will not be a “road” and will race well tomorrow. However, with nearly 40 races there this week it can wear out certain “laneways” and rain will hurt the pattern eventually.

  20. Gigs,
    You are right. That’s a fair band of rain en route. Still expect to have cricket in the morning and no track dramas…don’t make me nervous!

  21. Sorry! Shouldn’t last long. Hopefully some good lightning though.

  22. Favourite out of Derby!

  23. What happened?

  24. Peter Flynn says:

    I note that Lloyd was not first up this morning with Keith and Matt.
    Interesting!
    Hand the Loving Cup to Bart now.

    I’m off to the track.

    A nice mixture of Nursery Car Park and Members Grandstand.

    Good punting to all.

  25. If Viewed was a pro runner it would have got 3 months for an insufficient performance in the McKinnon Stakes. It just strolled around the Flemington track. Get on it now for the Melbourne Cup.

    Doesn’t Bart train it??? Hmmmmmmmmmm

  26. Wherever Shocking finishes in the Cup will be 4 lengths behind Alcopop. Now whether that happens to be further behind Viewed is the only question requiring an answer.

  27. Just watching some replays and apart from the obvious (Viewed, Faint Perfume, Typhoon Tracy), love the following runs:

    Master O’Reilly (at least as good a Cup trial as Viewed- must go in trifectas Tuesday)
    Tickets – should have won for sure
    Absolutelyfabulous
    Silent Surround

  28. Peter Flynn says:

    Don’t get fooled.

    Viewed ran brilliantly.
    Hence:
    Back the Emperor.

    Remember this.
    Bart couldn’t lie straight in bed.

    He’s a living legend but he also the shiftiest of trainers.

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