People want to know: “What odds will she be?”.
“She”, of course, is Black Caviar. The odds, I suspect, will be $1.04 at best, though the punting prospect is not of interest to most inquirers. There’s a fascination with the winning streak and the cramped quote reinforces Black Caviar’s status as a superstar.
“She” returns for start/win 23 on Saturday in the Lightning Stakes (MR7, 1000m, G1, WFA, 4.30pm), the race now – prematurely in my opinion – rebadged for her, presumably to stymie other Clubs’ initiatives.
Bookies are itching to take her on, but it won’t be this week under the WFA scale and with modest opposition (although I see there’s been a pinch of $1.12 on Betfair and now $160,000 to lay at the $1.07 and $200,000 at $1.06!).My suspicion is that P.G.Moody won’t give us a chance to even up this Autumn, so I’m expecting she’ll go up at 1/50 and win in a canter.
The obsession with a perfect record can be a good marketing tool but is not always beneficial for the sport. In racing it has usually been associated with potential Stallions, hence we may see All Too Hard managed carefully throughout this season… and retired immediately should anything go wrong. It is an “economic imperative”, but a pity nevertheless, as the horses that consistently turn up and take on all comers are often those most fondly remembered – the role played so critically by geldings in Australia. In Black Caviar’s case, it is probably the Newmarket win that is most admired, as it was a challenge against the handicapper and top notch horses. As a consequence of her performances, second raters earn good place prizemoney – $90,000 for second this week and, not coincidentally, payments down to eighth for the 8 runners! If she’s right, she’ll just keep winning. But she is now a big 6 yr old mare, so connections will be watching for any signs of the edge being lost. It is the trapdoor so prevalent in boxing – going back one time too many. The solutions are to either retire “just in case” or to “hand pick” soft targets.
What Black Caviar does guarantee is a spike in interest from a “different” demographic – especially as Channel Seven’s auxiliary station takes the TVN feed for free-to-air viewers (check you guides, as they say). The challenge for the RVL is to convert a new audience – the lost generation – back to “our game”.
It is a good product on show at HQ this Saturday.
I even like one in the first – is that a push or a warning? The Talindert (MR1, 1100m, 2yo, Listed) often throws up a prospect which is then locked away for later. Casquets (9) impressed me on debut and is great value here. Politeness (11) was disappointing when spruiked first up and G.Boss, rightly, has lost the ride after his “poor judgement”. He does, however, pick up the mount on well regarded debutante Indulgence (12). An interesting raffle. I’m in. E/W 9.
The second (MR2, 1400m) is a good race. New York (6) is a thrilling horse and should get a mile and beyond, but is right in this if they can swoop. If he can make it here, he’ll make it anywhere! 6,5,3.
Skip the mares’ race (MR3, 1400m) but tune back in for the 2000m for stayers (MR5). Angola (9) will someday pick up a good stake and might even make a Cups horse. He scratched from Mornington for this and has the plus of K.McEvoy.
Moody’s second stringer, Are There Any (12) is one to watch in The Vanity (MR5, 1400m, G3, 3yo fillies). Blinkers first time and piloted by the very capable D. Stackhouse.
The males’ equivalent, the C.S.Hayes (MR6, 1400m, G3, 3yo colts + geldings) opens the Quaddy. This is the 4th x 1400m race of the day so punters should by now have sussed out a pattern for success. Philippi (3) only has to run up to his first prep to be right in this. 4 is fav. and a big tip. 2 is the query – poor last start but very highly rated. Forgive?
No bet in the Lightning (MR7, 1000m, G1, WFA). 6 from 7 (Satin Shoes) as the forecast value.
The next is pretty ordinary (MR8, 1200m). Decircles (9) for D.T.O’Brien and Froggy Newitt.
Some cats amongst contenders in the last (MR9, 1700m). One that might improve is David Hayes’ topweight, the German import Why Not. After one ordinary run on arrival he was put away to acclimatize and returns here on the open expanses of Flemington and with the class of Craig Williams aboard. 1 from 10.
I love the Autumn Carnival. We get the good horses without suffering the “clotheshorses”. There’s plenty of room to enjoy the product. A fine weekend is in store. If you can’t get to Flemington consider other options. Take the opportunity to say you’ve been to the “Buchan races” (Saturday) or plan to find Oges over at the KI Cup.
Any tips or observations, as usual, are welcomed.
Crio’s Racing: “What odds will she be?”
People want to know: “What odds will she be?”.