Crio’s Racing: “What odds will she be?”

People want to know: “What odds will she be?”.
“She”, of course, is Black Caviar. The odds, I suspect, will be $1.04 at best, though the punting prospect is not of interest to most inquirers. There’s a fascination with the winning streak and the cramped quote reinforces Black Caviar’s status as a superstar.
“She” returns for start/win 23 on Saturday in the Lightning Stakes (MR7, 1000m, G1, WFA, 4.30pm), the race now – prematurely in my opinion – rebadged for her, presumably to stymie other Clubs’ initiatives.
Bookies are itching to take her on, but it won’t be this week under the WFA scale and with modest opposition (although I see there’s been a pinch of $1.12 on Betfair and now $160,000 to lay at the $1.07 and $200,000 at $1.06!).My suspicion is that P.G.Moody won’t give us a chance to even up this Autumn, so I’m expecting she’ll go up at 1/50 and win in a canter.
The obsession with a perfect record can be a good marketing tool but is not always beneficial for the sport. In racing it has usually been associated with potential Stallions, hence we may see All Too Hard managed carefully throughout this season… and retired immediately should anything go wrong. It is an “economic imperative”, but a pity nevertheless, as the horses that consistently turn up and take on all comers are often those most fondly remembered – the role played so critically by geldings in Australia. In Black Caviar’s case, it is probably the Newmarket win that is most admired, as it was a challenge against the handicapper and top notch horses. As a consequence of her performances, second raters earn good place prizemoney – $90,000 for second this week and, not coincidentally, payments down to eighth for the 8 runners! If she’s right, she’ll just keep winning. But she is now a big 6 yr old mare, so connections will be watching for any signs of the edge being lost. It is the trapdoor so prevalent in boxing – going back one time too many. The solutions are to either retire “just in case” or to “hand pick” soft targets.
What Black Caviar does guarantee is a spike in interest from a “different” demographic – especially as Channel Seven’s auxiliary station takes the TVN feed for free-to-air viewers (check you guides, as they say). The challenge for the RVL is to convert a new audience – the lost generation – back to “our game”.
It is a good product on show at HQ this Saturday.
I even like one in the first – is that a push or a warning? The Talindert (MR1, 1100m, 2yo, Listed) often throws up a prospect which is then locked away for later. Casquets (9) impressed me on debut and is great value here. Politeness (11) was disappointing when spruiked first up and G.Boss, rightly, has lost the ride after his “poor judgement”. He does, however, pick up the mount on well regarded debutante Indulgence (12). An interesting raffle. I’m in. E/W 9.
The second (MR2, 1400m) is a good race. New York (6) is a thrilling horse and should get a mile and beyond, but is right in this if they can swoop. If he can make it here, he’ll make it anywhere! 6,5,3.
Skip the mares’ race (MR3, 1400m) but tune back in for the 2000m for stayers (MR5). Angola (9) will someday pick up a good stake and might even make a Cups horse. He scratched from Mornington for this and has the plus of K.McEvoy.
Moody’s second stringer, Are There Any (12) is one to watch in The Vanity (MR5, 1400m, G3, 3yo fillies). Blinkers first time and piloted by the very capable D. Stackhouse.
The males’ equivalent, the C.S.Hayes (MR6, 1400m, G3, 3yo colts + geldings) opens the Quaddy. This is the 4th x 1400m race of the day so punters should by now have sussed out a pattern for success. Philippi (3) only has to run up to his first prep to be right in this. 4 is fav. and a big tip. 2 is the query – poor last start but very highly rated. Forgive?
No bet in the Lightning (MR7, 1000m, G1, WFA). 6 from 7 (Satin Shoes) as the forecast value.
The next is pretty ordinary (MR8, 1200m). Decircles (9) for D.T.O’Brien and Froggy Newitt.
Some cats amongst contenders in the last (MR9, 1700m). One that might improve is David Hayes’ topweight, the German import Why Not. After one ordinary run on arrival he was put away to acclimatize and returns here on the open expanses of Flemington and with the class of Craig Williams aboard. 1 from 10.
I love the Autumn Carnival. We get the good horses without suffering the “clotheshorses”. There’s plenty of room to enjoy the product. A fine weekend is in store. If you can’t get to Flemington consider other options. Take the opportunity to say you’ve been to the “Buchan races” (Saturday) or plan to find Oges over at the KI Cup.
Any tips or observations, as usual, are welcomed.
Good luck!

Comments

  1. Crio,

    Slug’s Birthday. What other day would it be.

    I might all of a sudden (only takes one winner) be Danny Williams second biggest fan after Mrs Williams. He’s got Iking (N Hall) in the 7th at The Valley tomorrow night, and War Charm (G Boss) in the 8th at Flemington. I like the theory that a straight 1200 at Headquarters suits Sydney horses. Unload on both. I will be surrounding them in my sometimes discombobulating exotics.

    Keen to see the unbeaten Kiwi Sacred Falls in the Royal Sovereign at Rosehill, now with the owner of Sydney racing, Chris Waller.

  2. Your 1200m theory is thus far sound.
    Thought the import in the last might suit your discombobulations.

  3. Crio,

    Yes, Why Not. Why not. By the great Konigstiger, and could as such be related to the equally great Rod Steiger. Not a hard race to win, and as much as it pains me, D Hayes, sans Lindsey Park, may, after an eternity, be running into some form.

    I’m half keen early day’s on his Bass Strait, earlier in the day. I don’t usually come in after 2 wins, but I watched his vids, and he has seemed pretty impressive.

  4. Crio- got out of the car in the KI ferry queue and started talking to the bloke in the car opposite- I work for a bookie he told me and we field over here and a few select meetings in SA
    Names Rubin (Rheubin?) and I work for Lillis Killmartin
    So after I stopped my surprise look and told him I knew you – three degrees of separation .
    After a mornings fishing and feeling off because its choppy its off to the Friday races to get a bank for the Cup . Sure beats bowls

  5. If the hoop on “Go the Knuckle’ takes it literally, and inconveniences Luke Nolan, Black Caviar might lose, otherwise i see her being the first horse to win a race named in her honour.

    Me, i’ll watch the race from the members in Corowa. It wil be a hot day on track, as long as my wallet doesn’t get burnt!

    Glen!

  6. My theory at Flemington is in all races pick something that has a good record 200 metres more than the race in question. EG Good 1400 metre form, back them in a 1200 at Flemington and so on…

  7. Quite keen on one at odds tonight at the Valley.
    THE MINISTER in R5, the 955m scamper. S Arnold replaces Nikita McLean and he appeals as the perfect jockey for a well timed run over the top of them in this type of race. Quoted at $20 in this morning’s paper. I see it has opened at $31 on IAS.

  8. .Budge,

    Like your thinking re The Minister. Reckon if you were a professional punter / boxer, and your surname was Fenech, you’d be Budge “The Judge” Fenech.

    Important jockey change. I’ll have something e/w and get a bank for Iking later in the night.

  9. Manikato would pick her up and carry her over 7f +. BC is a great sprinter, but like all of modern professional sport she is a triumph of money and marketing over substance.
    Since Hay List went amiss, most of her opposition of the last 18 months would struggle to win a mid week welter.
    Special, Maybe Mahal, Century, Placid Ark, Hareeba, TT – all of them would have given her a real contest.
    I can always remember Bill Collins calling a race where “Nobody was in front, and Nothing’s behind it”.
    Sounds like most of BC’s appearances since the Newmarket.

  10. Yeah, Peter, I can’t get too excited about her running today…. I am fascinated, though, by the volume to lay on Betfair as she looks unbeatable.

  11. David Downer says:

    Morning boys,

    Apologies. Been MIA. Heading out there today, can’t say I’ve done a heap of form though. Won’t grace you with any tips. Defer to D.Lester??

    Peter_B, how many horses have gone 22-0 in the modern era? Trounced every other G1 winning sprinter the last three years, Royal Ascot win on 3 legs, sub-10sec furlong.

    She makes them look ordinary.

    The marketing writes itself.

    Today will be a spectacular day for racing.

  12. Peter,
    Money and marketing didn’t win her 22 from 22. She would comfortably beat all those sprinters you quoted up to 7f. She doesn’t need to be running around in Cox Plates to prove her greatness.
    Suggest we all enjoy watching her while we can cos we won’t see another like her in our lifetime.

  13. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/break-out-the-bubbly-its-time-for-another-taste-of-caviar-20130214-2efor.html

    I don’t know much about racing and have little care for it but I did enjoy this article. A hero (or heroine) is hero.

    Cheers

  14. Craig Down says:

    Extraordinary.

  15. David Downer says:

    Breaks 25 year track record, cantering, on a modern day Good3 track.

    Knockers?

    #tumbleweeds

    #givemeaspell

  16. Good to see you back and firing DD
    Could dehydrate badly here on KI – hot for the cup

  17. Hope you can rehydrate, Oges, from having backed Brewery Boy? There was a good article recently how this horse would have made a home at the old Vic Park but now has to wait for Flemington and the straight track. Trainer Gordon Richards is, ironically, a mate of the Reuben you met on the KI ferry. Enjoy Kingscote.

  18. Did BC moonwalk the last 100?

  19. Not quite Rick. Nolen actually shook her up a bit (no whip or anything) but it was good to see her back. Been a few races at Flemington over the 1000m over the years. Great to see her with a record. Awesome to be there and see her perform. Will be better for the run too!

  20. She just broke a longstanding course record (Specials’ 55.5) without looking as if trying. Mindblowing!

    I was at Derby Day in 1991 when Final Card equalled the 50 year old ‘Straight six’ record set by Aurie’s Star in 1941 (1-07.8). That was exciting.

  21. Sat in the members at Corowa, and watched Black Caviar cruise home. The days last race was delayed for nigh on 10 minutes allowing all present to view the equine marvel perform.

    Was happy to have a nice collect, as i had paired her with Bells of Troy in an E/W allup.

    Pleasant day on track, in a non TAB meeting. Honours to the Sweeney family from Jerilderie. Phil trained a double, the young apprentice Brooke, saluted twice; her first win(s)? The pair combined on Lingering, a narrow victor in in the third.

    I’ll be back in Corowa for the Cup on March 10. Happy punting.

    Glen!

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