Crio’s racing: The 1st of September, 2012

“Wiser afterwards.”
A stock answer to Monday’s Q: “How did you end up at the races?”
I lacked conviction last week and failed to cash in on good hunches.
It was nothing ventured, nothing gained. Also, I guess, no bet = no loss.
We’ll be wiser again this Sunday after reviewing the Caulfield and Rosehill results.
For example, after the H.D.F.McNeil Stakes (MR4, G3, 1200m ), in which the great noms have unfortunately dropped away, we should know whether Elite Elle is a Classic filly or just a gun wet tracker. She is rock hard, Heath proven and some of these might be a bit “soft” – even on a Dead4 the 7/4 looks juicy. Gai’s visiting Kabaya (5) and Kav’s If I Could (9) look the best of the rest, though any visiting G.A. Ryan runner carries a “Watch betting” caveat.
Punters will think they’ve seen enough of Golden Archer (and Moody’s horses are firing again) to plonk one out in the 1st Quaddy Leg as the main opponent, African Pulse, has now scratched. But very early betting has revealed some interest in Ben Melham’s mount, Freereturn (2) and also some firming for D.K.Weir’s Platelet. These are moves to note – however, I’ll be backing on The Gauch to steer 10/1 pop Dee’n’gee (7) home to put early value in to the multi.
The day’s feature is the Memsie Stakes (MR6, G2, WFA, 1400m), a “good horse’s race” that is, for many, a platform to the big middle distance WFA races ahead – Craiglee, “Dato”, Underwood, Turnbull…- and, as well as a glittering winners list (most recently 2011 King’s Rose; 2010 So You Think ) “futures” gamblers will be keenly eyeing those running on. I reckon 2012 is not a strong edition and there can be a knock for most, including the early market leaders Sincero (3) and Luckygray (8). The race conditions and pace look ideal for them to fight it out but Sincero has not been winning out of turn nor left handed and Luckygray’s WA hoop still worries me around Caulfield’s tricky turn. So what are we then left with? Conlen’s talking up Rekindled Interest, a very good horse, but I’d prefer him next start at Money Valley. Surely Heart Of Dreams is nowadays a notch off this quality? Expect money for Green Moon and maybe even Second Effort again, despite it being better ground. It is that sort of contest. Backmarkers should struggle but keen eyes will evaluate Moody’s import, Voila Ici (2), and JB’s Cup smoky, Sanagas (13). Not a betting race.
The 1700m R7 also will be on punters’ IQ with a host of stayers pushing up in mileage. The fav looks like being the in form Tassie colt Banca Mo, almost by default as so many of his opponents are not quite peaking here. For what it is worth I’ll be E/W Folding Gear (4) at 20/1.
The last is another peculiar challenge. Chase The Rainbow has been posted fav. I really like this grey, but he looked a ripper developing stayer before being sidelined for nearly a year. Surely he’ll get back and not want to be knocked around. With all of the wet trackers and stayers accepting here it is too easy to settle for Dusty Star, a possible muncher that you know will be up on the speed. Parthian has drawn out and Balzeus might get snookered from the pole. So ordinary is this race that I’m going to include Spacecraft (breaking my D.Hayes ban) at 25/1 E/W as my bet! Heaven forbid – “bet responsibly”!

Caulfield might be a tricky meeting with so many acceptors a run short and with so many of those which are fit having displayed their credentials on wet tracks. Hmmm. Tread warily. Watch the replays closely and sharpen the pencil for blackbookers. Take note of those stables hitting their straps – Robbie Laing has had his troops hard and fit and A. Freedman’s have been hitting the line again in the last weeks. Duric is the “hot hoop” and C. Williams the best.
The highest profile race of the day is up at Rosehill – SR6, The Run to the Rose, G3, 1200m,3YO. Pierro (1) was a great 2YO and looks likely to train on. But History is a tough judge first up. Main rival, in this small field, is All Too Hard (2), the boom half brother to Black Caviar. Bookmakers might sniff an “each of 2” opportunity here (evens and 6/4) and look to Epaulette’s weight pull to produce a “skinner”. Should be fascinating.
I’m looking forward to donning the Lillis Kilmartin bag on Caulfield’s rails this Saturday, hopefully armed with some advice and tips via this site.
Good luck!

Comments

  1. After being on tour in Sydney with the “Management Committee” and friends I managed to find an internet cafe on Monday and realised how much “I hadnt won” and with lack of confidence this week I am staying on the sidelines
    The interesting runner (very short) in Adelaide is Sysmo – a Tony McEvoy runner nominated for better races in Melbourne in the Spring.
    Great to see more traffic on the site from racing fans (and even Budge has come out of the woodwork again – if its as cold in Melbourne as it is here hibernating is a good thing)
    Crio thanks for the post on Yendalls Country Cups last week- great rider and Durics winners prove how good he is

  2. Crio,

    I agree with your thoughts re Folding Gear. Will improve out of sight. A genuinely talented young(ish) stayer in my opinion, and 1700 second up at Caulfield is ideal. Look for Sabrage to improve also out of the same heavy Flemington race 3 weeks ago.

    I also like Anise in the third. Good first up form includes a half length second to Foxwedge with Karuta Queen third. Didn’t come up last prep, but forgive and S Arnold up.

    For Budge’s benefit. Luckygray is an exceptional galloper, trained to win this race, not put in a “pointer” Might be the new “Greysian Beau”

    Urgent Bells in the last at Rosehill. Little filly who gets back and needs luck, but it’s a thrill to watch her get home. Races in the colours of Encosta De Lago and that good old grey grey horse, La Zagaleta was it?

    Great luck.

  3. I’m tempted with the Anise argument but worry about the “didn’t come up” out! Nevertheless she should come off a genuine tempo and does look one of many chances. Ravenous Lass has exceptional fresh form but, as you’ve noted, her Ballarat hardly matches Anise v G1 quality.
    Folding Gear might be a run shy but this is the chance to get some odds…distance and track look good – i reckon you tipped it about 18mths ago when he won here?

  4. Crio,

    Yeah, in retrospect, whilst I like Anise, I wasn’t prepared for the $6 she has come up here early. I thought she might be double that,.

    I did give Folding Gear a wrap 18 months ago and he duly won. He’s won the Easter Cup at the track since also.

    As a note, the Makfi(?) Stakes at Hastings is a great race. A mass of chances with a lot of potential stars returning along with the likes of King Mufhasa. Anyone who saw Guiseppina win the Group 1 Telegraph over there in January, coming from nowhere and beating Atomic Force will be keen to see her return.

  5. Elvis, if Folding Gear “doesn’t come up” we can label him a Caulfield Autumn horse?!

  6. Crio,

    Good call.

    Had a chuckle the other day, heard a dog racing called “Bark Obama” Not bad.

  7. Crio,

    I’ll get in first and all Politically Correct aspirants should tune out now, but no, I don’t know whether he came out of the black box or not.

  8. Barak for Lucky No 7!

  9. Elvis,
    Can’t get enthused on Anise. Used to be one of mine but doesn’t win out of turn.
    Also the new Asian Beau – don’t fancy on the real wet. Think Heart Of Dreams is better than these (or those with exposed form) and he might get to silly odds for a horse that has long been touted for better. Otherwise hard to see Sincero getting beaten.
    Stick with “the new Manikato” (Pierro) at least until the Cox Plate (then bail out!)

  10. Budge,
    What do you mean by a “real wet”? If this track is wet the whole market changes….especially in the Memsie.
    4pm today listed as Good3!!!

  11. Budge,

    You’ve thrown me in to a spin also. I heard they could well water the track at Caulfield.

    The new Manikato. Big call. Pretty sure he won’t get to win Group races as 7 or 8yo. Make that 4yo.

  12. Spring has sprung and somehow I find myself at this site while watching the footy and doing the form.

    I can see from the posts above that I’m now in very esteemed company so I’ve grabbed a beer from the fridge in an attempt to get some steely focus on tomorrows events.

    I think Caulfield race 7 is a real chance to find some value as there are a few winter wet trackers in the market that I’m not keen on. I can’t ever catch Folding Gear and its second up is not the best, so I agree with Elvis that Sabrage has a hope on the dry, I’m also going to have something on Miss With Attitude at big odds on the dry, I heard Mick Price in an interview during the week say that it’s working a treat.

    The other one I like is Kabayan in the 4th. Not sure about Elite Elle on the dry.

    Mick Malthouse UUUURRGGHH…why why why

    Good Luck

  13. David Downer says:

    Punters..

    Indeed, another day for looking and learning before the “launching” in coming weeks.

    I will be keeping a close eye on Rekindled Interest today. Might need the run obviously, but sounds as though Conlan has him fit and firing already. Was close up in this last year and the Auries Star first up before that. He should get a decent sort of run if he sits handy.

    Will be at Sandringham’s VFL final today following along on the terrific new RSN app – else I’d be Heath-side for sure.

    DD

  14. Skip of Skipton says:

    Happy Trails. Don’t be surprised if Bart’s horse runs well either, Gr1 Hollywood Cup winner last spring.

  15. Welkcome aboard Jock.. Blues need a goalkicker like you in your prime!
    Elvis, the Memsie was owned by Lord – his performances in it were better than most horses’ careers. 4wins, a second and a third I think!
    DD, I certainly agree that Rekindled Interest is the key runner and a live chance, but I just reckon it is better to take shorter and surer odds at the Valley in a fortnight. Enjoy the footy – we will be at Port Melbourne for the VFL tomorrow.

  16. Heavy 10 at Kilmore so didn’t realise Caulfield is only a 4.

  17. Pierro is very special. Just hope that Gai doesn’t run him in everything.

  18. I understand the Manikato reference….Pierro doesn’t win by 8 lengths but as soon as the pressure is on he gets the job done. Tough and very good.

  19. Doubt Elite Elle will pull up well…clearly an elite wet tracker.
    The last winner, Chase The Rainbow, is absolutely top shelf.

  20. Saw Chase the Rainbow win easily (and first up from a spell over the distance made it a great win)
    Trusted your judgement and mine and had Spacecraft e/w

  21. Thanks Oges but if you’s trusted me you’d have thought Gauch’s was E/W to nothing in R5 – an awful run and friendless in betting. Golden Archer is good. Moody is back and firing.
    You would also have fallen into Folding Gear. It stank!
    Sincero had the cushy run in the Memsie, handled the track beautifully and was too good…..look at those running 2,3,4 – WFA??

  22. Skip of Skipton says:

    Happy Trails went well as I tipped. I’m astonished you didn’t get the Pick 4, crio, with Mister Milton in there.

  23. At least I didn’t fall in to Mister Milton, though half way down the running there was a moment before Sincero just joined in…! 4yr olds have a good record and he likes the firmer going, but I’ll wait for a more suitable race for Norman Waymouth’s promising horse…he’s only won once!
    Good get with Happy Trails. There’s a good race around for him.

  24. I’m sure I heard Flynny’s fav, Crabs, saluting at Morphettville?

Leave a Comment

*