Crio’s Racing: Newmarket Day at Flemington and save some cash for the Adelaide Cup on Monday

The Newmarket Handicap remains one of the most sought after prizes on Victoria’s racing calendar, a fascinating challenge for horses and trainers. It is about getting the right horse with the right weight for the testing six furlong straight. It is about making a “pound for pound” judgement – just as athletes and their mentors look for a winning mark at Stawell, so have trainers down the years tried to get “thrown in” for the genuinely time honoured G1. Weights have, undeniably, become more compressed in modern times – and those higher saddlecloth numbers have been saluting – but there is still the potential for a “smoky” to get under the marker’s guard and get hit in the feature doubles. This edition’s example is Queensland sprinter, Better Than Ready (No13, 50.5kgs, C.Williams up), whose trainer, Kelly Schweida, has admitted that this is his big chance – and punters have responded by supporting him in from huge odds to 5/1. Those who prefer to emphasise the stopwatch are convinced that Moment of Change (2) is the right horse for this race – by boldly chasing Black Caviar last start he also broke the previous track record. On that run alone he deserves favouritism, but the puzzle is never simple. Luckygray (1) looked a really suitable horse but he seems a victim of Perth successes and is certainly weighted up to his form. Fellow Sandgroper, Barakey, sadly missed the run in the Oakleigh Plate and now must defy History to win first up – so the 5/1 looks too short. I might try Fontellina, a winner down the course and reasonably well in.

Super Saturday’s marathon card kicks off with a G3 2yo fillies race down the straight six and Montsegur (MR1, No2) looks sure to be the measuring stick.

The well related and highly rated She’s a Fox comes to Melbourne for the second (MR2,Listed, 1100m, 2yo).  This is a step up but she’s aimed even higher so needs to deal comprehensively with this lot. Looking forward to see her perform.

The Sires Produce Stakes (MR3, G2!!, 2yo, 1400m)seems a soft black type on paper. Moody’s Weinholt (6) and the SA visitor hold the key, but I’m thinking of dabbling the toppy Direct Charge at the 33/1.

The Blamey Stakes is another annual mainstay (MR5, G2, 1600m) and the focus here will be on the autumn outing of Melbourne Cup fav (!!!) Puissance De Lune (1).

Norzita is a crack filly and is rightfully in the red for the Kewney (MR5, G2, 1400m, 3yo fillies).

After the Newmarket opens the Quaddy, we confront a pretty interesting Australian Cup. I reckon Green Moon (1) is the right fav at about 3/1 and that Super Cool (13) is the pick of the colts, though short enough at 4/1. The value might be Mawingo (6) at 8/1.

The administrators invariably throw a tough mares race in to the quaddy and they haven’t let us down (MR8, G3, 1600m, fillies and mares). Secret Liaison (4) is flying and must go in.

The last, as per my formula, is the skinny leg (MR9, Listed, 1400m). Fawkner (1)

Melbourne cedes the spotlight over the coming weeks and even this Saturday there is plenty of black type available at Warwick Farm, including the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (SR6, G1, 1600m, WFA). There are some top notchers involved although many of them will have eyes for other prizes. Chris Waller trains 6 acceptors and has been bullish about Shoot Out (3).Real good race. Havana Rey (13) hasn’t done much wrong in weaker company? Lots of black bookers will come out of this meeting so it is a “must watch”.

Public holiday Mondays have lost their currency as city race days and, whereas Flemington always hosted a highlight weekend, the VRC have lately put all of their eggs in to the Saturday basket and given the MVRC what has become a terribly lowkey day on the Labour Day holiday.

Punters will therefore redirect their attention to Morphettville’s Adelaide Cup meeting. It seems to have been a quite successful move by the SAJC to a March date and it is again a well supported card. I intended to “forgive” Tuscan Flyer’s loss last week and to back him in Adelaide’s showpiece 2 miler until he drew out on Anzac Highway. Help!

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

I haven’t had the chance to do any form yet. We’ll need to be wary of some very firm tracks in some regions – I’ll worry about horses jarring up after Flemington and trying a quick back-up.

Holiday programmes may have changed dramatically but it still rings true that long weekends equal a host of meetings right across the country. From Tumut to Ceduna and Norseman to Charters Towers you are bound to find somewhere to enjoy the gallops on Saturday. Here in Victoria there are some fantastic offerings. The Hinnomunjie races are held in the High Country (look it up) as a prelude to the national Calf Sales. Beautiful Towong, near the very top of the Murray, and Alexandra, up near Eildon, are other great settings for holidaymakers to incorporate a meeting in to their weekend. Echuca race Sunday and Monday and, of course, the Balnarring picnics are always on Labour Day Monday.

No excuses!….but we’ll need to find some winners. All contributions welcomed. Good luck!

Comments

  1. Did anyone jag a winner last Saturday in what was a difficult day?
    Adelaide Cup on Monday will be a scorcher -38C forecast temperature with a pretty even field.Will be wanting some guide from Jock and other experts as to their thoughts (maybe Norsqui ?
    (The “managment committee” likes the Hayes runner e/w)

  2. Watch She’s A Fox – she is a star!
    Mawingo for mine in the Australian Cup. Ran a cracking trial first up, wasn’t suited by the tempo 2nd up. Plenty of pace on here and Flemington suits perfectly. Each way forever.

  3. Sounding very bullish for a Friday morning1
    Foxwedge’s little sister can really make an impression tomorrow. I hope so.
    Is the sires lucky to keep it’s status? There are still some over-classified races – having said that it is still bloody hard to win one.

  4. Skip of Skipton says:

    Havana is debuting in the 2yo race in Sydney. Has been well specked for the Slipper.

  5. As always, one must plug the races in Corowa, with Sunday being Cup day. Can a local win for the first time since Sir Knight back in 1999? Can Glen pick a winner for the first time since then. All this and more will be revealed on a hot , sunny afternoon in Corowa, there in the heart of the Riverina. Watch this space !

    Glen!

  6. cowshedend says:

    Crio,
    I know the 3yo’s have to be a bit special to win the Aust Cup, and most have an awful record, but what about Super Cool,wins the AAMI vase at 57 level weights in 2.08.25.
    Green Moon beaten 6l in the Cox with 59,the Cox was run just under 4 sec quicker than the Vase,but the maturing Super Cool with the 54.5 at WFA must be in it up to his earholes.
    Fell into Hayes 2yo Fine Diamond last week at Sandown,it was the unluckiest thing going around at Rosehill when struck 2 severe checks.ran like a busted…a#s* at Sandown, saw stewards reports and they reckon he didnt handle the going.Well he’s going around in the first on Sat at $41

  7. Are you tipping or venting?

  8. N.Hall on and C. Schofield off is a good start.

    Also, am I barking up the wrong tree by rating the toppy in the Sires Produce?

  9. Skip of Skipton says:

    Glen!, Freyer camp has From London in. Should go close. Went too hard in front at Bendigo.

  10. Skip of Skipton says:

    Well worth a spec and including in the tri at those odds, crio, which I have done. Did anyone see Gamblin Guru’s run in Adelaide? A few are tipping him and he’s $7 fixed, which looks reasonable.

  11. cowshedend says:

    “Are you tipping or venting?”

    A little from column A and a little from column B.
    I only wish i had D.Olivers restraint and had one bet in my life, albeit a 10k bet….also his strike rate.
    Just a thought ,how frustrating would it have been standing behind him in the queu at the Angora goat as he kept stuffing his ticket up,no wonder he got Mark Hunter involved.

  12. Skip, the Guru’s reward was to be gelded!

  13. G’day Skip, yes young Childs set off a rate of knots in Bendigo, with the horse battling it out for 5th. It would be nice if he could deliver, as the last local to salute on Cup Day was Richards’ Sir Knight back in 1999. I actually like Regular Aussie, the Berrigan horse, been following him throughout his career. Time wll tell. Happy punting!

    Glen!

  14. Skip of Skipton says:

    Gelded Guru? Being a first-cropper of the impressive New Approach.

    Glen!, yes Jordan Childs imagined himself to be his dad on Sunline I reckon.

    Glass Harmonium keeps leaping out at me. Is it the heat?

  15. No Skip, it is Flemington. He jumped at the Heath. All or nothing ….no glass half full!

  16. Skip,

    I agree with you about Gamblin Guru. Owner Harry Perks is one of the most astute, or luckiest (think the latter) owners in the game. Well bred. Great chance.

    Great racing in Sydney too. I initially highlighted Silent Achiever in the Chipping Norton, though Budge has since pointed out to me that both Warwick Farm and Gate 1 are detrimental to her chances.

    Needless to say I respect his input, but will probably override it.

  17. Ripsnorter says:

    I agree that Luckgray has maybe too big a weight but has an outstanding record and has only failed once first up – on a bog track at Caulfield when not at his best last spring.

    Came from last in the railway with 58 and just fell short of rolling Mr Moet giving him 5 kgs and think that horse has measured up at WFA. Flemington may just suit him down to the ground if he gets a strong gallop in front and finds cover.

  18. Skip of Skipton says:

    Shoot Out in the Chipping Norton. Better horse than is reckoned. Bennetta, Emotional Circus. All of them backed with all-ups from Havana.

  19. Elvis,
    You should have learnt by now. You override my advice at your peril !!

  20. Budge,

    Quite possibly, but I love a challenge.

  21. Budge,

    Further to the challenge ahead of me, Second up last prep, Silent Achiever quite easily accounted for Rangirangdoo and Solzhenitsn over 1600 at The Valley. Not a roomy course by any means. On that occasion, she drew barrier 2. She is all class.

    Lucky I have found her too. I was contemplating taking out a bank loan to box all of Chris Waller’s runners in the race for 33%.

  22. Not working tonight – but no form guide so loving all the tips.
    Flemington is a good meeting to study. Many logical favs so you can make a call to ignore or to look for value.
    Might have a spec at Cowshedend’s R1 nom to get a bank.

    Is Norzita just too good?

  23. Fair point Elvis. She does go well second up. Still concerned about barrier and track but maybe she’s just going to be over the odds because of those factors anyway.

  24. David Downer says:

    Stony Creek Cup day is also on Sunday. That, or Echuca Cup are options for me. But will be nice and toasty inland! Punters not-so-pal Anudjawun (30-1-7-6) heads the weights in Echuca’s big one.

    Readying to dive into form for tomorrow.

  25. Budge,

    Poosonce The Loon wins. they are spruiking Wall Street, but he hasn’t won since the original trailer for the movie. The rest are off seasoners. Put your house on it.

    Bet responsibly.

  26. Is Fawkner a lock in the last?

  27. Crio,

    I reckon so. Loves Flemington, goes well fresh and looks a quality galloper. The rest of the chances in the market take it in turns.

    Stick with your system of coming home light.

  28. Coming home too light now Elvis – with Secret Liaison out of R& and now, especially, Fawkner being scratched in the last. No Quaddy for me.

  29. Crio,

    there’s always scope for a quaddie, especially if it’s only a treble because Moment Of Change will not get beaten on it’s last run.
    I initially thought that the Aust cup was just Green Moon and the 3YO’s but also including Mourayan who is very consistent in this type of race and may get a good run off the speed a couple back, just a bit surprised that it’s got L Currie and Hall is on Tanby.
    3rd leg, Perfectly Stunning and Hi Belle and come home on Shanghai Warrior, Centennial Park and the 2 fav’s who may sort out each others chances up front.

    Other races are interesting; Mutual trust having first aussie run has beaten Zoffany on France..Isn’t Zoffany the only horse who got close to Frankel?

    Crystal web is a good roughie in race 2.
    I’m having something on Gatewood in Syd. Good run first up on the heavy and I think will improve a lot but still probably too short.
    Nothing too special happening in Adelaide today but will be putting in some work for cup day tommorrow and will drop something in, its a very good meeting.

  30. I thought She’s A Fox was an even money chance and she got to $3.30 on Betfair!!
    They never win when they drift like that – at least not if I’m on!!

    While I’m in form, here’s a couple of roughies to consider later for Quaddies or Trifectas.
    R8 No14 THORN STAR
    R9 No7 SHANGHAI WARRIOR

  31. Skip of Skipton says:

    I just had a $10 spec on Crystal Web, but so did a lot of people by the way it shortened. Far out!

  32. 100 metres less, and Moment of Change was home in the Newmarket, but Newitt swooping home on Shamexpress took the honours. Top ride.

    Glen!

  33. Skip of Skipton says:

    I thought The Gauch was going to get up! If he had drawn outside he probably does.

  34. Budge/Crio

    I reckon the recent poll to nominate your best horses of the 60’s and 70’s and 70’s and 80’s has exposed the elephant in the room to ridiculous levels. There is crap out there relative to recent times and reputations and services fees are being built out of straw.

    BC stands alone. Daylight second as far as good, consistent quality sprinters go. WFA Champs. Where the Sam Hill are they?

    The response that you can only beat what you are opposed to is haemorrhaging credibility.

    Genuinely concerned.

  35. Some good leads there Jock – did you manage them?
    Crystal Web, as has been mentioned, was backed for plenty.
    Still a big day for the satchel swingers.

  36. Elvis – I think we might have a fair 3YO crop so maybe in the next few years…

  37. David Downer says:

    Teriffic Australian Cup. We might have some really handy 3yo’s as the boys mention above. Super Cool and Fiveandahalfstar are now developing a genuine great rivalry. Raises the bar of expectation for the Sydney carnival – which for me is always about the 3yo’s (with a massive 2yo race thrown in). If the 3yo Spring form carries through to Autumn it really gives it a kick along.

    Had just a handful of wagers today. They were more “spur of the moment gut feel” throws at the stumps…

    But these did include Shamexpress ($17) straight out and Bonaria ($17) straight out.

    You’d think I’d be whistling dixie, but these were first and third legs of the Quaddie, and I did NOT take one today. Bloody bonus pool and all!

    #idiot

    Am trekking up to Echuca tomorrow for the Gup. Some late night form study (while having a look at Dubai) awaits. Will offer up any gems with the Riverina form before I nod off to …Zzz Zzz Zzz

  38. DD,
    Unless we are on a sling, I’d prefer those tips prepost! Well done. Good luck at Echuca. Ask young John Walsh for a tip.
    No work yet for me tmrw, so looks good for aircon pubtab and Parma.
    Jock is studying Morphettville. You cam provide some mayo for MV please.

  39. Crio,

    I’m working on it. Just back from golf, when I can stop sweating I’ll commence some studt with a coldie.
    Still counting up the profits…good day, wish I had put Boonaria in the quaddie but got to a great start with Crystral Web and launched on Centennial Park so no complaints.

  40. David Downer says:

    My fortunes there were very much late late last minute have-a-crack, admitedly, no time to post!

    About to walk though the gate at Echuca, Hotham Heights looks the goods in the Gup

  41. For what it’s worth I’ve done some form for Adealide Cup day and come up with the following:
    The cup: I think Dame Claire can lead and win. I think that Tuscan Fire will take a sit to get the 3200 because it was too keen last time, best of the locals is Waratone ( very unlucky last run) and Macedonian always runs OK at 3200.
    Best race of the day is the 3YO 1200, race 8. I’ve had a small bet on Marble Rye at 100’s because I know it’s flying but not sure if it’s up to these, Last Day is the one to beat. Alledgedly he was toying with running in the Newmarket.
    Others I like are Gold Sand in the 5th and Nullabor Nymph in the last.
    Plucky Belle is a bird in the 3rd at The valley.

    good luck

  42. Thanks Jock. I need to rebound.

  43. DD,
    Looks like a serious fill for the Echuca bookies.

  44. Skip of Skipton says:

    You Think So into Maybe Discreet. Both look big overs.

  45. Where are you watching them from tmrw Skip?

  46. Skip of Skipton says:

    I’m working, crio. So I won’t be watching. I’m putting my bets on tonight. I’m having a bet on the Perth Cup winner, Talent Show also. She might be a hot weather specialist! Overs also, but the Freo Dockers haven’t unloaded yet.

  47. Ripsnorter,
    They put a bucketload on Mr Moet at the death.

  48. Ripsnorter says:

    Crio,

    Mr Moet definately disappointing as even Tanby got over the top of him and Green Moon – no excuses and 3yo’s too good and really cleared out on the oldies. May have been interesting if Puissance had run in this one but hard to take anything away from the first two.

    Perth horses definatley dissapointing in the Newmarket although Luckygray ran home fairly well with a big weight and would like to see out to 1400 and 1600 in a good race in the East at WFA and see how he measures up.

    Enjoy the Adealiade Cup – Tuscan Fire given a plum ride from a bad gate will be hard to beat.

  49. Heading to a pubtab soon.
    Jock, Pat Carey very upbeat about Dane Claire. Sounds an E/W nob. I just think Tuscan’s better – but can’t back him from the gate!
    Think I’ll take your Waratone lead.

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