Footy, footy, footy…it is hard for anything else to gain a foothold this week as the GF Circus rolls in to town. Racing will greedily grabs its headlines after the last siren has sounded but there are plenty of chances for punters to get involved over this weekend with Group drawcards featuring tonight at the Valley, Saturday at Rosehill and then the G1 Rupert Clarke meeting at Caulfield on Sunday.
Night racing is successful when it has good fields and good weather. GF eve is a ripper timeslot and the racing will be excellent…but the forecast might keep folks at home. Let’s hope not as they’d miss the Melbourne debut of the mighty Pierro as he steps up to a mile and checks the cambers for his Cox Plate ambition in four weeks’ time. He has some worthy opponents in the Bill Stutt Stakes (MR7, 1600m, G2, 3yo) but, realistically, they are chasing second prize money.
The other big feature of the night is the A.J.Moir Stakes (MR6, G2, 1200m, WFA), formerly a fixture on the Cox Plate card. Anyone who was at the fabled “Kingston Town can’t win” afternoon would also have seen the legendary Manikato bring up his $1m in earnings with a gutsy Moir triumph. It’s a quality sprint, won by Black Caviar at the last two runnings and by Apache Cat and Miss Andretti in recent times. Moving it to this new slot allows the Manikato Stakes to be a Cox Plate Eve G1 and then create a natural pathway to the big Flemington sprint over Cup week. The congested weekend fixture has unfortunately left us with just 8 runners and no colts or fillies. A fit Buffering (2) is the one to beat.
Snitzerland (MR4,No1) nominated for the Moir but has taken the softer option against fillies in the Champagne Stakes (1200m). She should win. The bubble burst at The Heath for Elite Elle (5), which may be just an absolute wet tracker or, in fact, could have had enough.
The Night Quaddy bookends look tougher. The 955m Challenge (MR5, Heat 1) is a good series and can throw up a result as a breakneck pace can be the norm. That is the only reason to pick against Snitzem (5). Though not an avid T.Sadler man, I reckon the toppy, General Truce, looks fantastic value.
Sticking with Valley specialists, it is hard to bet against Excluded (6) in the last, with Precedence (1) the obvious threat. This is, however, a nice little race deserving further scrutiny.
Grand Final Day has caused problems for racing administrators in Melbourne and they’ve settled on scheduling a Mornington meeting to accompany the time honoured Group racing at Rosehill. Truthfully, unless you are MCG bound or your side is playing, there is plenty of time to give to the gallops Saturday – GF Day is like Xmas with its tolerable 2 hours and the rest being fluff! I never get through a whole game on telly so TVN will be an easy yellow button for me during the day.
As is too customary, Sydney’s fields lack size/depth/pace and thus are not great punting propositions. Chris Waller is a prolific trainer of winners and he seems to present the only barrier to what looks a Gai Benefit Day at Rosehill. It is, in fact, very likely that her stable will produce four consecutive Group winners in the main races on the card!
These kick off with another More Joyous (1) benefit in the Golden Pendant (2pm, SR3, 1400m, G3).
Next up is the Stan Fox Stakes (2.40pm, SR4, 1500m, G2, 3yo), nicely timed to dodge Craig Willis and “girt by sea”. Seven runners is very disappointing. It is Snowden’s Albrecht (1) v Gai’s Kabayan (2) – “each of two” as the bookies cite.
Fat Al (1) will be “3s on” in the Shannon Stakes (3.20pm, SR5, 1500m, G2) as he heads to the Epsom as Gai’s Randwick miler for 2012.
Then Strawberry Boy (6) is posted “in the red” for the Colin Stephen Quality (4pm, SR6, 2400m, G3) with Waterhouse stablemate and Nash mount Julienas (2) equal next pick with Waller’s Kelinni (5) in what might become a tactical battle.
If your footy bets are lost but the SR Quaddy still alive, the closers look to be (SR7)8,5,1,4 in to (SR8)3,9,5,8.
Sunday is the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (MR6, 1400m, G1) meeting at Caulfield. The main race has never quite resonated with me and the other Group race, the Guineas Prelude (MR5, 1600m, G3, 3yo C+G), suffers a bit from the fixturing congestion. With apocalyptic weather forecast it is impossible to preview yet. Epaulette will start fav in the Prelude and has ripper form v anything other than Pierro. The track is the challenge. Likewise, the key to the G1 could be in how Qld star Solzhenitsyn (6) manages the gate and the turn. He is very good but another complication is that his form is on good tracks! Wait until Sunday morning – the first is not until 12.45 so there is plenty of time to shake out the cobwebs.
Heaps of racing to absorb this weekend. Time to open the Winning Post and look for some earnings. Any assistance will be gratefully accepted!
Good luck!
Crio,
Sabrage in the last. Has his share of ability with a third in the King of Derby’s and 2nd in the SA version.
Very unlucky last start. Wanted to lay in for a considerable distance but kept coming. Has had a generous tweaking of the head gear accordingly. Has run well before at MV as a 3yo. Get on.
Also, whilst I can’t reveal my source, Thankgodyou’rehere might go pretty close to continuing the good recent touch of the Orange White Harlequin Yolk stable in the Moir Stakes.
Interesting race the last…Daily Double is R6/R8 so you can unload.
Are the “good things” (Snitzerland/Pierro) any risk?
Crio,
Think Pierro could be half as good as he is and still win. I don’t think a repeat of the Vain, Daryls Joy upset is in the offing tonight.
Haven’t looked at Snitzerland’s race, and attempting not to. I ‘m prone to come up with something to beat her.
Also, I’ve got egg on my face, Orange with a white YOKE, not yolk. Clown.
Budge: Shannon Stakes tmrw.
Dom Beirne has a bit of a push for one of your old ones…
“DARCI BE GOOD is particularly interesting. He fires 3rd up and will get a good run in transit, 1×1.”
Fat Al does look the one to beat.
Looks like we’re working some overtime this weekend.
I made an early start last night and back Armed for Action, the place at $10 Vs Sntizerland. I just thought that it’s drawn a barrier and had good form in the autumn behind Samaready looks a good hope for 2nd or 3rd.
I’m also on the Sabrage bandwagon, it just hasn’t been able to get a good draw and tonight looks right in it. I notice there’s a bit of action in the markets.
Anyone think that Rescue Mission has a hope in the 955? Something surely has to run on as there’s a lot of leaders.
Good to see the comments starting early as the tips and comments in recent weeks have been excellent
Crio- Mick Whittle has a big day tomorrow with horses at Pooncarie and Morphetville (Daryl Hewitt is also making the trip North East)
Its interesting to note that some of our better performers in SA are Melbourne bound for tonight and tomorrows meeting at Mornington . (David Balfour had good press in the Tiser with his horse which is running tonight -Obsiian Dragon)
An interesting runner tomorrow is My Ex Mate which has won its last two
However the Vic trainers are getting over to SA more and have had their fair share of success lately so im looking for this to happen again Saturday
Elvis-I will take your advice and have a go at your tip and wait for Budge and others to come good with theirs
I’m on the toppy in the 955m
Jock,
I’m in full agreement with your take on the 955. I reckon Rescue Mission can finish over the top of them. Put a bit of value into the Three Legged Quadrella too.
I agree with the principle that there are so many potential leaders in the 955 challenge it is set up for a swooper but General Truce is the one I’ll be on. He’s raced in 3 of these for 2 wins and a second to Kulgrinda (giving her 4kgs). Good form for this. Just need to ensure that T. Sadler rides better than he drives (see link)
http://www.news.com.au/news/jockey-chris-symons-may-miss-spring-carnival-after-accident-in-carpark/story-fnejlub9-1226482625362
Interesting editorial in Turf Deli about the closure of the outdoor Caulfield betting ring. I agree with all the points made. In addition, it now even further isolates the horses from the general public. Previously it was a quick stroll from the ring to the stables and adjoining parade rings but now so far away most won’t bother.
The whole feel of being at the races is being homogenised (already happened at the footy)- can’t help feeling its not for the better.
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/SirRupertClarkeStakesNewsletter2012.htm
Bit of specking for bottom weight in the first. Important gear change – gelded.
Found a huge roughie tonight in Race 3. No1 Scintillo quoted at $150 on TAB.
First the negatives. he’s an 8YO stallion who has only raced once in 2 years. Thus the $150 BUT…
He was good enough to start at $15 against Cirrus des Aigles in a Gr2 at Longchamp – carried 60kg and ran 6 of 10. Then beaten 8 lengths in the Japan Cup (these were in 2009 admittedly). At 2nd last run, ran favourite in Gr1 Whittingham Hcp at Holywood Park.
Gets into this very ordinary handicap only 5 kg off the minimum and has a noseroll on for first time and M Rodd. Probably will need more racing but I will have a couple of dollars each way in the hope that the class factor can prevail.
Budge,
I got a copy of the Magic Millions Patinak Broodmare Reduction Sale. Don’t know who his Bloodstock advisor was. A second hand washing machine salesman from Innisfail I’m thinking. Now I’m no Stanley Wooten or David Haines, but sheesh. It’s been reported Big Tink borrowed 20 mill of Gerry Harvey in lieu of the proceeds of this sale. Bar the buy backs and stat rorts MM are famous for, the 200 lots on offer will be lucky, in my opinion to average $5,000. That’s 1 million.
Also, their catalogue type and font is crap next to Inglis.
Good luck with that one Budge, you’d think it would need a few runs but it won’t cost much to find out. It looks a pretty weak race, maybe the Moroney import may be a chance as well ( Picture Editor), I’m surprised at the 72 rating as we often see UK horses come over with one or two minor wins and they have a 90+ rating but I did notice it was listed placed and has won at 1600.
Does everyone think Snitzerland will lead? If not it has to be some hope of getting rolled.
Budge,
Good luck with Scintillo, I admire a man who can come up with something at 150 to one, albeit trained by R Griffiths.
David Gately is a genius. “Take Pierro one out in the Quaddie, and back Precedence each way” Grand larceny wages.
At least Wayne Hawkes is on tonight for special comments, always entertaining. I’m still waiting for him to drop the magic word, I don’t know why has hasn’t done it before because it’s 90% of his normal vocabulary.
Jock
That’s too funny mate. Hooksey. is a freak. An R Rated Racing Letterman type show is much needed, and he’s the perfect anchor.
Go broke looking for value tonight….6 favs in a row – but The Gauch in the last is a remarkably productive punt.
Track raced very well.
More shorties seem assured tomorrow.
Crio and others – any mail /tips for Sunday ?
Sunday? Reckon I will start with a Lucozade and take it from there.
Fat Al was very short and not a great ride.
Strawberry Boy was “unders”
Urban Groove might be pretty good.
Sydney racing is being high on glamour but there’s Qs re quality.