Crio’s racing: Anyone other than S. Templeton taking the Jockey’s Challenge?

Diamond Day certainly sparkled, giving Flemington a very hard act to follow as it launches its Autumn Carnival with Saturday’s Australian Guineas meeting. The appearance of the mighty All Too Hard in the feature keeps the quality high but, in honesty, it is difficult to be wedged between Caulfield’s fantastic day and next week when HQ hosts Super Saturday.

By normal standards, however, there’s much to look forward to on the 9 race programme, with 3 Listed races and plenty of interesting Handicaps scheduled to support the G1 Guineas and the G3 Frances Tressady for fillies and mares.

Shane Templeton will already be in raptures calculating G.Boss’ odds for the Jockeys’ Challenge – he certainly has some plum rides but has slaughtered a few recently.

Punters will put their faith in the “Boss-man” from the outset (MR1, 1000m, Listed, 2yo), hoping Indulgence (7), smashed in early betting, can get them off to a flyer. If forced to bet, I’d risk him and try E/W Le Mans (2) @ 14/1.

Boss also pilots the fancied Shewan (1) in the next (MR2, 2000m) and bookies seem to rate this as a race in two (2 Keep Cool, 2/1).Very skinny.

The fillies and mares race down the straight in the next (MR3, 1100m) and I’m a bit keen to lay Loveyamadly (7) at the shorts (6/4). I do, however, seem to repeatedly underrate this highly consistent performer so am interested in others’ opinions on the market. I think Avoid Lightning (1) might be very, very good. Is Lady Antebellum (4) overs at 33/1 or is she just ordinary?

Unfortunately not many of the girls have accepted for the Frances Tressady (MR4, 1400m, Listed, fillies and mares) which might mean a dawdling pace and a leader dominated outcome (waiting for Gator’s speedmap!). There’s Only One (1) is the best horse and deserves to win.

The stayers get their turn in the Roy Higgins Quality (MR5, 2600m, Listed) – should be a highweight to commemorate The Professor! Bossy is on another shorty here that I’m keen to lay (1 Tuscan Flyer 5/4).

A really good race (MR6, 1400m, Listed) opens the Quaddy. Callanish (3) is deserved fav but there are plenty of others in contention – Launay (2), Excluded (4) and British General (8 – Boss again) have serious claims. Good horses. Really interesting race. Wait for a bias to emerge and bet accordingly.

The Australian Guineas (MR7, 1600m, G1, 3yo) makes it a treble with All Too Hard about $1.28 and clearly classes above his opponents. It is good to see a full field but, unfortunately, the best of the rest of the promising staying colts – such as Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool – are steering clear of Helsinge’s latest super progeny and taking on all-comers in the G1 Australian Cup next week.

The Bob Hoysted (MR8, 1000m, Listed) is an interesting race. Punters will have to make up their mind about Mick Price’s lightly raced and highly rated filly Isabella Snowflake (10). I am certain that some punters will risk her as favourite up against some good older opponents and go wider in the Quaddy. Others will go “one out”! Moody’s acceptors seem to hold the key. Toppy Ready To Rip is a seasoned and successful Group sprinter and if his more recent acquisition, former gun Qld filly Karuta Queen, can rediscover her form, she too will play a major role down the straight – though I’m skeptical first up for nearly a year! Perturbo (4) might be the one for value.

I reckon you go thin in to the last leg (MR9, 1700m). Practiced (6) is very promising and the likely winner. If your div looks healthy you can lay off as he’ll be pretty tight for the Lloyd and Craig Williams combo. Boss fans will load up on Under The Hat (8) and Shadows in the Sun (1) is another you’d like to have running for you.

Q- 2,3,4,8/1/4,10/1,6

There’s also a good Valley Nights card this week, with better prizemoney = better horses and hopefully better weather = better crowds. I’ll be there.

I’ll also get out to Oaklands Junction on Sunday for the opening sessions of the Sales…. A recommended outing at a purpose built venue just past the Airport. Kid friendly (for a while).Grab a catalogue, wander around the stalls and watch the bidding.

It’s a great time of the year in Racing. Hope you get the chance to enjoy it – and to share your thoughts here.

Good luck!

Comments

  1. Crio,

    Brave selections for the quaddie having left out Gail in the last and Karuta Queen for its first run for Moody in the second last. I really feel there’s some potential for a good quaddie on Saturday.

    Ist Leg is really open, Shout Out Loud is back from 2 ordinary runs in Sydney and may go well and Over Quota has spent most of it’s last 3 runs sitting 3 wide, no cover plus the ones you’ve already selected.

    2nd leg( All 2 Hard) is no good thing this week. The Flemington mile can throw up a lot of results when short priced horses go back in big fields when they have to go past a lot of slow ones if they don’t go too fast up front. Gods Own and Denman are recent odds on losers and I backed Shamrocker a couple of years ago at 40’s, she came off a soft run from about 5th on the fence…I can’t remember who else was in that (probably destroyed a million brain cells after she won). I think Phillipi has some hope and Albrecht as well if it can take up a position. I’m not potting the fav, just being very wary as things could go wrong.

    3rd leg is also really open, easier to find about 4 that can’t win..the rest all can if things pan out. General Truce is very good fresh and Moody will probably improve Karuta Queen becasue he seems to improve everything.

    4th leg seems a bit easier as I really think Gail has this in the bag. Chasm as a roughie.

    Have I missed any? I’ll be taking a very wide quaddie this week and if the fav’s all win I’ll most likely end up with 10% of sweet FA.

    Go the Knuckle looks good odds (4.60 on sportingbet) at MV in the last on Friday

  2. Crio,

    Pretty keen on Folding Gear to open the Quaddie. In a race abound with usual suspects, I reckon he possesses quality they lack.
    Ran a huge race Course and Distance the prep before last.
    Couple of luckless runs last prep before a G3 win and 7th in the Caulfield Cup.
    One out in a brace of Quadrellas. Go heavy on the fav in the Guineas in one and go wide in the other.

    First thoughts.

  3. Many good points…
    Jock – Karuta Queen is solid in markets so must be going OK. I always rated her. She is, though, off a mammoth spell and nominated for races like the Newmarket and the William Reid. “Watch” as they say!
    Elvis – I’m also a Folding Gear fan and my initial notes queried chances here. Ultimately I’ve decided to wait a run or 2.

    No way I’d take the “red dot” on ATH, but you have to go one out in the Quaddy or none at all. If you have any concerns, lay him on Betfair and proceed as above.

  4. Agree that I wouldn’t be taking the shorts on ATH this week.
    Reckon if Moody has Karuta Queen half right it wins.
    But Jock – CHASM??? – please explain how it has any chance – and god knows I’ve given it plenty of them!

  5. Jock, I agree Over Quota is a chance. I still say the effective tactic is to go skinny with a shortie in the last leg and lay it if a div looks good – this allows you to spec wider early. But, I rarely take and never get a Quaddy so it is just (another) theory – and it makes tipping easier on Wednesdays with no form!

  6. After the excitement of last weeks meeting this weeks will not have the same appeal – find it hard to get many selections
    Agree with you Jock on Go the Knuckle tonight
    No doubt about you Budge- you are like the cops. You want explanations for everything
    Elvis- thought of you last night pouring a Sav Blanc from our wine region
    Crio- reckon your boys would have struggled at Lincoln Wed- every race won by Favourites

  7. Crio,
    Good card at Headquarters tomorrow but the real interest is in Sydney. Probably the most fascinating race of the year to date is the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) where Gai’s 2 outstanding colts, Pierro and Proisir, start a new campaign. Both have proven to be genuine stars and have had reasonable excuses each time they have been beaten. They were both considered good enough to run in the Cox Plate as early 3YOs and performed creditably at the end of arduous preparations, in Proisir’s case it was his first preparation and he appears to me to have the most upside. Waiting to take them on are the race fit Rebel Dane, boom NZer Sacred Falls (J Cassidy replaces L Innes) and the other top colt from last season, It’s A Dundeel. Should be a great race and a teaser for more clashes between them over the next month when All Too Hard will also be thrown into the mix. Looks a vintage crop of 3YOs.

  8. Wow…hadn’t had time to look to Sydney. That is a really interesting race and you are right that these look to be a good batch. Hope they cross swords regularly during Autumn.
    Any tips?

  9. Using DD’s speed map I’m having something on Thy in the Frances Tressady

  10. Budge,

    You’re right (he says instinctively) The Hobartville looks a pearler. i see though that Gosford was abandoned today, and early track conditions for Rosehill is a Heavy 9. Fields, including the H’ville will probably be decimated, leaving us with what might have been. Ala Barakey.

  11. Crio,

    I think, as purists, that we may have all gotten a bit tired of the term “turn of foot”, so oft used during the Spring Carnival by those knowledgeable, and in particular, the once a year Arse Clowns.
    Well I heard Breednet’s Tara Madgwick drop a new one the other night in relation to that Caviar horse. “Economy of motion” (What the……)
    Interesting to see if the commercial TV “Nut Sacks” pick up on it.

  12. Crio

    Last week I noticed the two faves – the filly and All Too Hard were both No.10. Peter Ellis, who I really really rate as an analyst and tipster, had selected the 10 (Mrs Onassis) in the third leg. So I took 10 10 10 10 for $5. and 10 10 F F. A nice result.

  13. Just watching tonight’s meeting and the B Thompson interviews and I’m getting the feeling that Thompson seems to have an uncanny resemblance to someone ( chirp, chirp) who regularly contributes here.

    Am I right or have I had too many beers?

  14. Skip of Skipton says:

    The old binary picket fences, eh?

  15. Skip of Skipton says:

    I’m keen on Kav’s horse Sheer Talent being in the frame. Looks a good quinella/trifecta card to me. I can’t split a few.

  16. Races 6 and 8 are excellent. Think I mught lay the Snowflake?

  17. Skip of Skipton says:

    They are the races I’m liking, crio. I’m into General Truce who ticks all the boxes and Karuta Queen, who if replicates anything like her best should win. Will have the fave in the tri with them.

    I also like British General and Launay for similar reasons, and will have the fave in the tri also.

    How was the Valley? My mate Bazza had a good spec on the first that paid 40/1. He bombed on the running double though. End of transmission after that.

  18. David Downer says:

    Hooly dooly, All Too Hard is out!

    Back to the drawing board ..the Guineas is alive…

  19. It may be alive DD, but it should now be G3.
    Super Cool and 5 1/2 Star will be gnashing at dodging ATH

  20. David Downer says:

    My friends that have a piece of You’re So Good are certainly not complaining about that!

    Should be plenty of early speed on. If they don’t back it off it should be set-up for the run-on horses, bringing into it those having their sights on longer distances in Sydney.

    So old mate Hvasstan who checked heels first up presents as a genuine value option now at around $16. Will have a slice of that. Bass Strait also closed nicely late last time in that on-pace suited race at Flemington featuring most of the chances here. Hayes is back in town too.

    Hoping my mate’s filly can stick on up front, but If there is one who may fill that role, Ajeeb looks a gutsy little thing, and with G.Boss piloting, might tick that box.

    Philippi looks drawn to get the best run.

    Albrecht will start fave, but has been horrible in Melbourne so far. Those who took their quaddy last night with ATH one out likely to be stuck with him. The “scrub the sub” campaign seems to be back on the RV/Tabcorp agenda. I reckon I could have it sussed on an Excel spreadsheet by end of the weekend!

  21. Craig Down says:

    Hi all,

    D Lester has tipped his own, Gail, in the last today at HQ.

    A positive lead if ever I saw one.

    He likes Phillipi in the All too Hard for All too Hard Stakes today as well.

    Good punting.

    CD

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