Cox Plate Weekend Preview:A Nod and a Winx!

Before jumping into Sal’s preview, just letting you know that Greg Carpenter will be the guest at the Almanac Melbourne Cup Eve Lunch at the North Fitzroy Arms on Monday Nov 6 from 12.30pm. Always great to hear Greg and to try to pick the Cup trifecta. $50. If you are interested please rsvp@footyalmanac.com.au

 

Greetings all,

 

Some feedback during the week and it appears the Adelaide supporters are a happy lot picking up Bryce Gibbs.  Think the Blues are happy too with their bounty from the trade so it would all appear a win-win.

 

A segue before the a looking at the races this weekend.  The Segue Digital Solutions website www.seguedigitalsolutions.com.au is up and running and business is rearing to go.  We are ready to assist with any IT challenges and opportunities your organisation faces, how are you attacking the 4th?

 

Hope you all had a boom time last weekend!  But probably not from the Caulfield Cup which saw another long shot take the major prize.  Blew us out of the Quaddie – delighted with another tripod!  Managed to find winners among my selections but not too many on top.  Turns out Pinot should have been my top pick, as it usually is although I also followed Shiraz in her day!  Didn’t have Cliff’s Edge in the Norman, but did once the track resembled Dapto.  Had the winner Kiwia on top in the Coongy plus the quinella among the selections.  Ulman and Snitty Kitty were 2nd picks and the top two quinellad in the latter event.  Caulfield Cup was a disaster only one my eight finishing top four, what a difference a year makes.  Then another 2ndpick Global Glamour saluted along with a nice $95 quinella among the picks.  Hope somebody put it on – I didn’t.

 

Lots of well fancied horses down from Sydney failed to fire with only the GaiBott pair Our Crown Mistress and Global Glamour saluting.  A great chance to say Melbourne form is better – assume it at your peril.  Caulfield is notorious for bringing clockwise runners undone, Moonee Valley and Flemington in particular do not seem to bother them as much.

 

We saddle up for the Moonee Valley carnival, kicking off with the Manikato Stakes on Friday night before the huge card on Saturday highlighted by the Winx procession.  She goes now for 22 in a row, you reckon the owners could stop acting so surprised when she salutes!  Eight group races to be decided a number of the support card events being important lead ups into Flemington next week.

 

Friday Night

 

Race 7 – Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

A number of form lines collide here with plenty of quality as you would expect with 7 figures on offer.  Incredibly Wayne Hawkes declared had never seen Chautauqua (1) work better in his final lead up – the problem is I reckon Wayne has let go of that line a few times of late.  The old fella is running well, it is just that others are running better.  He couldn’t catch Vega Magic (2) in The Everest and I don’t think any of the rest of them can either.  Looking for some value in the holes and I reckon Voodoo Lad (6) might just be the one, 2 from 2 over this journey and Weiry has run out jockeys and perched H Bowman aboard.  In Her Time (9) didn’t get into The Everest but sizzled in the sprint before it and grand old grey to be running on for fourth.

 

Selections – 2-6-9-1

 

Saturday

 

Race 3 – Red Anchor Stakes (G3, 1200m, 3yo SWP)

 

The barrier draw has me putting the Mick Price trained Ducimus( 2) just ahead of Rebert Smerdon’s Experimentation (8).  First run for Mick Price, a winner on a good surface and a cushy ally.  Experimentation (8) has plenty of upside but drawn the outside.  Single Bullet (1) beat Ducimus (2) a couple of starts back so must be a chance as is Éclair Sunshine (6) who has been racing in good company.

 

Selections – 2-8-1-6

 

Race 5 – Tesio Stakes (G3, 1600m, 4yo+ Mares HCP)

 

The ladies contest the time-honoured Tesio whose name has now been destroyed by Powerflo Solutions – can’t wait till Segue Digital Solutions can afford to destroy a race name!  No need to check the form for the top pick here Oregon’s Day (2) has been a black booker.  Great run last time but wide without cover, has to contend with a wide gate again but back in mares company and with D Oliver on board happy to burden her with my cash.  Invincibella (5) has the inside draw and is the main threat, Consommateur (2) is building a nice record and French Emotion (1) has all the class but plenty of weight to carry.

 

Selections – 6-5-2-1

 

Race 6 – Moonee Valley Gold Cup (G2, 2500m, SWP)

 

A small field for one of the traditional lead ups for the Melbourne Cup with a few of these on the cusp of getting a start.  Big Duke (1) beat most of these in the St Leger at Randwick two weeks ago, he meets them on either level or better terms – drawn a good gate – should be winning.  Auvray (3)seems to be going a bit better than Libran (2), however on his day Libran (2) can blow a field away.  Cismontane (7) will be in it for a long way, but my fourth pick is Cool Chap (4) trying to get another entry onto the big one for the Hayes Clan.

 

Selections – 1-3-2-4

 

Race 7 – Moonee Valley Fillies Classic (G2, 1600m, 3yo Fillies SW)

 

A chequered run for Speedway (5) last week but still a good effort in a leader dominated race.  Giving her a great chance.  Main threat is Mintha (4)coming off a reasonable effort in the group one Thousand Guineas.  The McDonald-Gluyas partnership have engaged D Oliver for Glam Guru (3) over from Adelaide and GSOB’s other entry Banish (2) has appeal.  More chances in a tough one.

 

Selections – 5-4-3-2

 

Race 8 – The Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, WFA)

 

3 from 5 at The Valley and 50% strike rate over 1600m is good enough for me to put Burning Front (3) on top here in a pretty tough race.  It’s Somewhat (1) is the Godolphin entry – won the Doncaster second up and there seems to money for it.  Religify (4) gets some weight relief after a brave effort last week and this is probably D-Day for Lucky Hussler (2) fourth run back should be ready for a big race.  Still might not have it, evenPetrology (6) could get up but the extra 7kgs might be telling.

 

Selections – 3-1-4-2

 

Race 9 – The W S Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, WFA)

 

The heavyweight championship of Australasia – this year looks like it will be a track gallop for Winx (8).  The remainder of the field are mostly running to tune up for other target races.  There was talk of a challenge from Hartnell last year, there is no such discussion this year she just wins.  SurprisedHumidor (3) is fronting up after a tough run last week in the Caulfield Cup but DKW is a much better judge than I, his other entry Gailo Chop (2) is in great form also and the 3yo Royal Symphony (9) goes around with a feather duster on his back and also coming off a good effort in the Caulfield Guineas.  Probably think he is only one that could cause an upset but not rating as second pick.  Happy Clapper (1) and Folkswood (5) are the others that could run into a place here.

 

Selections – 8-3-9-2-1-5

 

Race 10 – The Vase (G2, 2040m, 3yo SW)

 

The traditional Derby lead up over the Cox Plate trip has the favourite for both the Derby and the Oaks, but they are both very short here.  Salsamor (3) was a flying 2nd in the Stutt Stakes here before a creditable run in the Guineas – bred for the extra distance can win this and be right in the picture for the Derby next week.  Hard to split the favourites Cliff’s Edge (1) will make it a true test and if the conditions are suitable could hold them all out again, Aloisia (9) will be more fancied if they are swooping.  Sanctioned (2) was right behind Salsamor (3) in the Guineas.  The outsiders Wolfe Tone (8) and Four Koalas (10) are both coming off 2nd placings over this distance, not winning hopes but might add some value to tricks.

 

Selections – 3-9-1-2

 

Quaddie Time

 

We get the free hit with Winx, however getting a dividend might be challenge.  But any dividend will do.

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg 3 – 8

Leg 4 – 1, 3, 9

 

60 Combinations for $30 will return 50% of the dividend.

 

Go Winx, Go the Duke, Go to www.seguedigitalsolutions.com.au

 

Cheers, Sal 

 

Comments

  1. Midsomer Barnaby is a late scratching. Super Cash is still going around in the Manikato tonight. Looked lame at most recent outing, but trainer refuses to withdraw her. Tongue tie and dolly vardon blinkers go on. Watch.

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