Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: A win at last

True Believers, a win (at last) but neither comprehensive nor convincing.

But, a win’s a win is a win.

Last Weekend?

AFL:

A win, over the Gold Coast 15.13.103 to 13.10.88.

I did not see it, nor was I able to follow it – outside of TV / phone coverage. Thanks again, James, a fabulous night.

Match Reports at http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2017/17/gcfc-v-collhttp://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-07-15/report-pies-find-a-way and, another view, http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/round-17-gold-coast-v-collingwood-witts-v-grundy-floreat-pica-society. Buck’s explanations at http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-07-15/buckley-pies-maintain-the-rage.

As I didn’t watch or follow the game, I’m not going to make too much comment about the statistics, but what do we see? Hit Outs’ advantage (47/43) turned into very small Clearance advantage (45/43), creating a substantial Inside 50s advantage (63/44) leading to advantages in Scoring Shots (28/23) and Goals (15/13). The loss of advantage regarding Clearances by the Mids is concerning.

 

Best? Pretty solid recognition throughout the various media of Sidebottom, Treloar, Reid, Fasolo, Pendlebury and Thomas. From reporting, the operation of the Forward Line based on Darcy, Reid and Wells worked. I’d be tempted to include Wells in the best.

 

Regardless of whether we can or can’t make the finals, there is absolutely no point in ‘playing it safe’. See suggestions below.

 

VFL.

Perhaps inevitable, a Loss (actually, a thrashing) putting an end to our ‘giant-killing’ three on a trot: 9.10.70 to 20.10.160. Go to http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2017-07-15/lessons-learnt-in-vfl-pies-loss and

http://websites.sportstg.com/round_info.cgi?a=MATCH&fixture=124787053&c=1-118-0-436949-0&pool=1. Some good individual performances – Ramsay and Wills. Aish hurt – concussion.

Next week?

AFL.

This Week? Round 18 – vs WCE at Etihad on Sunday, 23 July 2017; bounce 3.20pm.

Them. They are above us on the ladder (isn’t nearly everyone), in the eight and fighting to stay there. WC are 8th with nine wins and a percentage of 102.1% against our 14th place, six Wins and 96.0%. We are three wins plus percentage (technically (or mathematically, if you prefer)) outside the Eight. But WCE are a bit up and down – since before their bye they lost to GWS followed by a Loss to the GC. Since their Bye they’ve adopted a win / loss routine week about with a win over Geelong, followed by a Loss to Melbourne and a win over the Bulldogs. With the exception of their win over Geelong by 13 points each of these games has been won or lost by less than 10 points. Things have changed in the last two weeks. While the win / loss program has continued, the margins have blown out. So in their last two outings, they lost to Port by 32 points and, last week had a comfortable win over Freo by 30 points – the last ‘Western Derby’ at Subiaco. So they are coming in with a solid win behind them, but are travelling – a key disadvantage.

People / Things to watch for – Mitchell, of course; his performance in the Mids has been stellar. Jetta and Duggan (also plays on the HB Line) on the HF Line and Sheed and Hurn on the HB Line. Others have been noticeably quiet. Watch Vardy in the ruck and Shuey as rover. Anyone else?

Implications. May need to tag Mitchell – Goodwood, Blair?

Us. As much as I hate Etihad, where we consistently play badly, at least it is in Melbourne.  We are well below them in achievements so far this season, however no team is safe, this season. But, we are coming into the game with a single win against a team well outside the eight following four straight losses. As above, we’ve nothing to lose – so go for it.

Ins / Outs / Maybe’s? Ins – Greenwood, Schade, Keeffe, Kirby and Mayne. Outs – Hoskin-Elliott, Smith, Langdon, others? Latest news – Pendles out for the rest of the season – this has ‘opportunity’ written all over it?

Game Plan? Okay’ish. Late in the season, we now look like our Forward Line is working.  I’d still like to see an additional man in Defence – maybe Keeffe rotating with Grundy in the ruck. And the Mids are looking okay, though I continue to prefer to keep Pendles out of the middle (if he is playing).

What do you think?

We should win this (as always, of course).

Weather? Melbourne, with a roof.  Who cares.

Game Previews:

  • AFL Match Day Preview – http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2017/18/coll-v-wce. There now. Their prediction: WCE by 15 points.
  • Natoli’s ‘Ultimate Preview’ will be on the Pies Home Page at http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/ in the next few days.
  • The Age Preview – Should be at http://www.theage.com.au/afl also in a few days.
  • Expert Tips – will be at http://www.theage.com.au/afl/expert-tipsters.  The majority of experts got it wrong (17 to 7 picked GC) again.  This week?

 

My PicksPies by 31 points. BOG: Goodwood – 19 touches @ 78.3% DE, against Mitchell with 17 touches.  Reid – four Goals; Kirby – four Goals.  Crowd: 57,000.  Best competition: Goodwood vs Mitchell.

TV? No Free to Air TV coverage (again) – Find a friend or head over to your local Club to watch. Anyone else being herded away from FTA just because of the appalling programming and the awful way the TV station overlaps advertisements with play – “Just because you live in Canberra you want to watch Sydney and GWS” seems to drive their programming. Are you home then, Neil, or do you want to meet at Eastlake?

VFL:

This weekend Round14 – versus Richmond at Punt Road Oval on Sunday, 23 July; bounce 10.20am.

Richmond are sitting 4th against our 11th place on the Ladder.  On the basis of that, we should be out of our depth. But, apart from last week, we’ve shown a bit of ‘killer-instinct’, so… an upset is achievable. Go Pies. Who to watch for in our side? Well it depends who gets pulled into the AFL side. Of those remaining look for those suggested above plus, of course, Daicos, and Brown.

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Other Things:

  • ‘Eddie Watch’. Quiet. Very concerning when he is quiet. I wonder what he is thinking now?

The Future?  Some criticism at http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/for-the-love-of-collingwood-its-time-ed/.  Worth a read.

Of course, it’s never over till it’s over.

Welcome your views?

Reporting. C’mon people – your Reports? Is anyone getting to the games?

Footy Almanac. The Footy Almanac site includes us and others. See: http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/. Worth a browse.

Go Pies.

Cam.

 

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