Almanac Racing: Spring Carnival Final Day 2010

Bookies have, as usual, so far claimed the points at the annual “Flemington fill-up” and will be looking to top up at the outstanding fourth day of the “Festival”.

Punters were losing confidence in a tricky track after some early blow-outs on Oaks Day but they rallied late to get a bank for a counter-attack on Saturday. One good judge explained to me that evidence of an inconsistent track was the length of margins – a lack of close finishes indicated to him that once a horse found the best lane it just ran over its opponents. We never lack for theories on course!

I’m reckoning that the inside might be the go this week and will lean that way in my early deliberations. The weather is on the improve, the rail must surely go back ”in” and leaders should be favored.

Rightly, the focus will be on the Gr1 Patinack (R5, 1200m)which promises to be this Spring’s highlight. This decides the mantle of the world’s best sprinter as Black Caviar and Hay List duel down the straight six. When last they were mooted to meet (Moir), Haylist would have opened fav. Yet such is the Black Caviar boom that she should open in the red. No value there. I’d rather the big fella. Excitingly, J.Winks has declared that his mount, Star Witness (7), proven here, will be pouncing. We thus dismiss quality horses All Silent, Melito, Eagle Falls and Ortensia. Genuine Group One. Not to be missed.

The other time-honoured Gr1 is the Mile race which, as usual, has depth, class and punting dilemmas. They tend to go hard here but I’m reckoning on it being tough for swoopers. Watch TVN if you aren’t there and be prepared to move with the track’s trends. I’d love to back Snow Alert (15), but the barrier (16) is too tough, as seems to be the misfortune of many main chances. My top pick thus is the Kiwi, Wall Street(3), with a watch on Rothera (11) at odds.

If you can’t find a roulette wheel you might like to bet on the Matriarch Stakes (R7, Gr2, 2000m). Good mares. Tough race. Mares tend to hold their form. River Bypass (16) might be “overs” and Platinum Passion (17) is racing well.

The staying race, the Queen’s Cup (R8, Gr3, 2600m…where once the C.B.Fisher Plate was scheduled!), is a Country Cup in the City. An even bunch, I’m forgiving Persian Star’s misfortunes at the Valley and snapping at the long odds but will save on Miss Darcey (2) if it is a hot leader’s day.

Do not leave Itsamonty (R9, No8) out of your Quaddy or “get out” prognostications. Much better off here than when she ran “fat” at Geelong. Nibble the huge odds. Mangonui (10) is another roughie to improve the exotics.

It has been a rush to look at the form after escaping Flemington this evening, but I’m already looking forward to heading back down Racecourse Road on Saturday. The Final Day has been quite a success in recent times and rightly so. It now begins with the rescheduled Maribyrnong Plate for the juveniles and gives fans a taste of the gamut of distances and conditions …a great sprint, a mile, the mares, 3yr olds, a Cup. With forecast blue skies, this is a “must” meeting for lovers of our great sport.

See you there. My “hoarse” voice will be trying to help fill the Turfbet bag in the main ring!

Comments

  1. Peter Flynn says:

    Thanks for your Carnival coverage Crio.

    It’s called the Cantala Stakes and I note that it was won by a horse named Gold Salute in 1940.

    This will be an amazing effort if it can ‘salute again’ in 2010.

  2. Peter Flynn says:

    Crio,

    This isn’t mine and may you know this already.

    So You Think has been defeated in races by:

    Starspangledbanner

    All American

    Americain

  3. In fact, his last three conquerors.

  4. Crio,
    This the Queen’s Cup is better than your average Country Cup though up there with the Geelong Cup which is now THE form leadup to the big one. I’m keen on Exceptionally.

  5. My whole form prep is stuffed as I’d presumed the rail would revert to true. It is out 9 metres. Bizzarro!

  6. mark freeman says:

    Crio my recollection of the Ampol/Honda/Nissan/Chrysler and as Flynnie has advised Cantala and Geo. Adams is usually the winner almost scraping paint on the outside fence in the effort to avoid the cut-up carpet – a la Testa Rossa. But that memory usually comes with dark clouds and rain, so tomorrow’s fine weather might make it a more even playing field (we wish…)

    Nonetheless I like the punt tomorrow – I’m with you on the big boy Hay, and as you mentioned at JTH’s you can get the 5-2 no worries. I also like Greggy Eurell’s Red Colossus, Zantelagh, Exceptionally, and We’re Gonna Rock will brain em in the last. Interesting internationals in Laristan early and Eastern Aria in the Queen Elizabeth or her cup or whatever. I’d imagine Ciaron Maher is trying to qualify Moudre for next year’s Melbourne Cup by running him yet again, but he might kill him in the process of doing so. Been a lot of grand finals for him.

    The Cantala a raffle, luck in running to determine.

    Good punting

  7. Good fishing Freeza.
    Despite everything I’g going to back River Bypass (33/1) in R8 and I might now save on snow alert in the mile.

  8. I’ve got a feeling that We’re Gonna Rock might just be a money burner.

  9. I went skiing in Yarrawonga on the weekend. Nowhere near a race track or a TAB. Saved myself some $$$

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