Almanac Racing: GUINEAS DAY 2010

Guineas Day already. As much as I’ve looked forward to it for months, it still comes as a shock that, with liniment still lingering, we’re launched headlong in to my favourite day at The Heath.

It doesn’t look a vintage Caulfield Guineas (R7) this year – think Testa Rossa and Redoute’s Choice eyeballing up the straight – but this race is nowadays promoted as a maker of stallions and invariably it delivers. Toorak Toff and Anacheeva face the Sydney challenge of Ilovethiscity, but there are a host of other chances. Masquerader might be the value to beat the toppy.

As is so often the case, after brilliant noms, the Stakes (R5) has disappointingly few acceptors though any chance to see So You think and Whobegotyou should be grasped. Small WFA fields are notoriously FWD but its foolhardy to bet against Bart’s latest champ – even Kav supporters will agree that the defending stakesholder (Whobe) is lengths better at the Valley. Stay out, but watch and enjoy.

The Toorak Handicap (R6) looks the pick of the Group Ones with Gai’s glamorous More Joyous heading the weights en route to the Cox Plate. She’s swept all before her in Sydney, though Sunline comparisons may be premature – at Randwick she’d be $1.60, whereas with the 58kg impost on debut at Caulfield she’ll be more like $2.60. I don’t bet against her over the mile. Class should prevail. Put Chasm in exotics at odds.

I am staggered that “authorities” declined to include the Schillachi (Gr2, R4, 1000m) as a Quaddy leg. This is a cracking little field. In recent weeks Haylist has demolished his opponents and these are the next wave who might consider heading to the Moir as his fodder. Mic Mac is great fresh and Gr1 proven, whilst First Command, in any other season, would be seen as top drawer and is a track specialist. Star Witness, a Gr1 winner here, will be motoring home. But the only horse in the land mooted as being a challenger to the “A-list” is Black Caviar. Despite being underdone, punters will rally to Moody’s unbeaten mare. Odds on, I’ll look on; but this is a fantastic race.

The 2010 edition of the time-honoured Herbert Power (R3, Gr2, 2400m) has relevance and quality with Moudre(3), my selection, pushing to get a Cup run next week. Those many who have plonked him in early doubles will sweat on Saturday as this is an unusually good field. Precedence (2) was outstanding at MV, and Linton(5), too, showed his calibre. Apprehend (6) has claims. I prefer Right Fong (8) at HQ. A good form race.

One that I will spec to kick-start my investments   – take note Budge – is Fast Future (7) in the second. Early markets have him at 80/1 but, although not guilty of winning out of turn, he has credentials for this type of race fresh. At very least put him in to a quinella or Tri.

I’m going to somehow have to find hours to pore over this wonderful programme. Get there if you can. Caulfield on a sunny afternoon is a great place to be and, behind the stands where the horses are boxed and walked, it is rarely crowded and usually pleasant.

Punters will have to be alert for any track quirks and remember that the local boys have a dynamite strike rate here. I’ll be closely watching the flucs from my station in the main betting ring.

For anyone looking for another early spring experience, I’ll also be calling the bets at Cranbourne’s Cup day on Sunday.

As always, tips and observations are appreciated at this site and come up and say hi (if my boss doesn’t look too bleak!) when you get on course.

Good luck and enjoy.

Comments

  1. Guineas early flucs have the Toff drifting and the Sydney Colt clear fav with specking for Moody’s.

  2. Peter Flynn says:

    The phrase time-honoured must be used each week of the Spring Carnival. Played Crio.

    I like Spacecraft in the time-honoured Toorak Handicap.

    Steer clear of the Caulfield Stakes.

  3. “Doesn’t win out of turn” is always a good “out” also.
    I was very tempted to say that Gai has a big opinion of More Joyous – rather like Olly Read recommending a pub!

  4. Crio,

    Race 2 and Tagus is an each way special. My trigger finger is itching. Don’t know whether to grab the $12 on offer now or wait. Fixed price does your head in.

    Race 3 and I am going to try the Fremantle Doctor North and South. Came with big wraps and has great European form.

    Race 4 and Black Caviar is off my menu. She has had problems and they just can’t keep winning. Mic Mac and Winter King for me.

    Race 6 and I will be trying Snowdens 2. Drumbeats and Kidnapped. The mare has too much weight around Caulfield for the first time for mine

    Race 7. Obviously I will have a nip at Morgans Seriously Good, but I also like Kudakalari. If there is any doubt about the mile for any of them, not this bloke. Black Bart and the colours of Tic Tac Toe Tick Tock Clock are undeniable.

    Race 8 Morgan again with a SERIOUSLY GOOD chance in Jesses Girl. I will also be trying Dance of the Ocean both high and low tide.

    The last and Kryptelon and Orbiting Belle look great value.

    The treble this week will cost me about 8 grand for 15%.

    Good luck

  5. Tasting good are they mate?
    I’m getting interested in Masquerader for the Guineas. Who,though,is W.Marwing?

  6. Crio,

    He’s an emu. First name Where’s.

  7. That certainly needs to be read in context! will he get around Caulfield?

    BTW, weather is great and track will be 3 or 4.

  8. mark freeman says:

    Crio he’s a Seth Efrecan boy whose on the international circuit. Don’t know if he’s ever ridden the Heath, Payne must have put him on cos of the Yarpie connection.

    Moudre all day for me, have coupled him up with some of the shorties, Bart’s and Moody’s on the early bird (8s).

    Drumbeats and Spacecraft to beat Joyous, agree too much weight around Heath for her. Plenty of chances in guineas, Intencion, Bullbars and I love the way little Hollowlea loves to find the line. Big chance for trifectas.

    See you there bagman.

    Freeza

  9. R2 – if track GOOD – Sound Journey, agree e/w chance at odds Fast future
    R3 – great race but probably watch only – Linton perhaps at the odds as he has the most upside
    R4 – Mic Mac is ridiculous odds – can’t see him missing a place
    R5 – watch in awe No6 – no bet
    R6 – like Gold Salute and Kidnapped both at big odds ($60 or better on Betfair at present!)
    R7 – Bullbars a chance with blinkers on
    I’ll get back to you on the lat two races.

    A couple of questions:
    How many Gai Waterhouse horses have started favourite in Melbourne over the years and what is their winning percentage?
    What is her runners to winners % in Sydney compared to Melbourne?

    I think the moral would be: Back her in Sydney but leave alone in Melbourne

  10. Budge,

    Stews report states that Gold Salute pulled up with “Atrial Fibrillation” last start (sounds like a heart thing) which will explain poor performance. With that, I’m with you. He is a Group 1 accomplished horse who will be big odds, at the least for a place. Great overs each way.

  11. Have something eachway Playing God R2 at belmomt
    Beat the older horses in a trial earlier in the week.

  12. I know racing folk are a fickle bunch but I coul not believe how quickly the masses decided that SO YOU THINK was an all time great and clearly the best horse in the land after it had only won 4 races!!

    Having said that, and seen his win today, can I say that SO YOU THINK is an all time great and clearly the best horse in the land (notwithstanding Gai’s horse put up a great performance today in the Toorak).

    I just have this nagging feeling that everyone said the same thing about Weekend Hussler (and seeing Solar Charged win in Sir Dapper’s old colours reminded me how quickly we forget the “champions”) – still can’t wait for Cox Plate day. Could be one for the ages!!

  13. Track bias gives extra credence to More Joyous.
    Moody’s Black Caviar was the star today…and his horses are flying.

  14. So You Think isn’t even 4 yet…
    he is a november foal…

    Don’t won’t to got the early crow or be a mock but he will win the cox plate this year and next.

    Then he may well be a ‘All Time Great’ ATG as the great KT (Kingston Town) didn’t win the cox plate as a 3yo

    And the effort for a younger horse to beat the older horses at WFA is very good !!!

  15. Hope everybody had something eachway playing god.
    Follow him in the west and also his full brother God Has Spoken

  16. Djarindjin Jerker says:

    Are there other races going on in the country…Thanks Saintly for the quality tip…perhaps another great WA warming up for the next Spring carnival…Good luck at Cranny, Crio

  17. Well done Saintly. i thought of it during the afternoon and then lost track of time.

  18. Here’s my tip for the week…Tuesday at Grafton. R3 No 13. Snip it fast.

  19. How did the Grafton tip go?

  20. Wet.Meeting postponed until next Tuesday, making it one of my least unsuccessful urgings.

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