Almanac Racing: Cox Plate 2010

The Cox Plate is always a Spring highlight and this year’s installment, with its dramatic build-up,  will produce a memorable race for the big crowd expected to pack the Moonee Ponds amphitheatre.

Excitement has necessarily been tempered by news of the tragic death of jockey Stathi Katsidis, another wasted talent gone too soon. There’ll be strong sentiment for his intended mount, AJC Derby winner Shoot Out, but that won’t be enough even for this big son of High Chaparral, as the super sire of stayers has an even bigger, more imposing and talented son in So You Think who, by any analysis, looks nigh on unbeatable in the WFA Championship. One corporate bookie, in fact, made a media splash this week by paying out already on bets for Bart’s superstar. He looks bomb-proof and punters will revert to exotics to raise a dividend. Zipping and Whobe are suited at these conditions so might be the Forecast options.

The non-acceptance of Haylist has robbed racegoers of the likely day’s highlight, where he’d’ve started short to beat Black Caviar, but the temporarily time-honoured Moir (now Gr2 Schweppes, R5, 1200m) Stakes is still a star studded line-up. It’s always a nostalgic race for me and I shudder at how I took the evens Rancher in 1982 only to see the marvel Manikato notch his million in beating Razor Sharp to ice one of the great sporting days ever.

Some trainers may have been caught “on the hop” this year, using this as a pipe opener to Flemington by assuming the big WA hurricane’s dominance. I still couldn’t back top NSW mares Melito – hers is 2nd up form – or Hot Danish – surely the mile at HQ – and would only countenance track, distance, 2nd up exceller, Eagle Falls, as the blowout challenger to Moody’s mighty machine Black Caviar.

The support card, whilst good, may not be vintage. I’m not impressed with the 3 yr olds this year and the AAMI Vase, a key Derby indicator, is an open race by dint of having no convincing nominees. Rekindled Interest is the early fav but already has convictions. I’d be looking to A. J. Cummings’ Shadows in the Sun, to be ridden by red hot hoop M. Walker, to put early value in to the Quaddy.

The Cup (R7, Gr2, 2500m) is not a bad race, though Precedence will justifiably start short. Include Dr. Turf’s Persian Star in your multis.

The last race, for mares, is a beauty. Last year they successfully put “a stack” on Lady Lynette and I see no reason that she won’t salute again. There’s a big push for the toppy and a watch on Preventable.

Quaddy numbers to include 3,4,5/2,13/5/1,2,15(emerg16 if a runner)

My value bet of the day is Snow Alert (R4, No9), currently $26 on IAS.

Enjoy the day. For racing’s sake, it would be good to see decisive wins to So You Think and Black Caviar. They cramp markets, but stars are great for our sport.

As usual, I’ll be in full voice hoping to fill the Turfbet bag in the main ring. Good luck.

Comments

  1. Crio,

    I have long held a belief that the WSCP is a race for a “War Horse”. Think Northerly, Fields Of Omagh, Might And Power, Super Impose, Better Loosen Up. Good 3yo’s have won, the fav last year, Octagonal, Surround and Taj Rossi.

    Zipping has been there, done that and bought the T Shirt. Are you aware he has run 4th in 2 Melb Cups.I have backed him at $17 and if the HPot gets beat, it will be him that inflicts it. Trainer Lloyd must be desperate to win this race.

    Looking further, Morgan has a half brother to his good mare Illusionist in the first and he generally balks at running early 2yo’s. Mirror man will get mine.

    The Crystal Mile has traditionally been a very evenly contested affair. I am tossing up between Rock Kingdom, Gatehering and your early mail, Snow Alert.

    The Sprint. The big mare was awesome last start, but they all get beat eventually, and I want to be on something else when they do. For me, Eagle Falls in a blowout.

    Jessicabeel in the MV Cup at a suitable distance and Sea Galleon might have a future.

    The last is fantastic from a punting perspective. Absolute Faith is giving me absolute pocket ache, but I am prepared to stick. Add the classy Sir Patrick Hogan owned Katie Lee, and Music Review and Marheta to improve tomorrow, and there is a quid to made if you are bouyant come the last.

    Great luck

  2. There’s usually 2 scenarios Elvis.
    They go mad at the school and the last carted in- like a trots race- swamps. Surfer’s Paradise.
    They trot and canter. A miler gets a soft win. Sunline.
    Not a punting proposition unless we get a gallon of rain pre-post.

  3. Very strange market trend this evening as So you Think starts to ease. No real shorteners but certainly a sense that he is now short enough. $1.60+ on Betfair and even backable the place!

  4. mark freeman says:

    Crio,

    Only two great races – Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup – and three great race days – Caulfield Guineas, Derby Day and Final Day – on the Melbourne spring calendar.

    As usual we get an underwhelming support card to the great race, but the good ones can’t race every week.

    My only position is to pot More Joyous from the 2 – 4 slots behind Bart’s champ. Hence I’ve gotten on the NSW tote for my first fours and tris featuring So one out with Shoot Out, Wall Street, Zipping and Whobe for the holes.

    And there’s a lot of things that can go wrong in the gallops – seagulls, lunatic Peter Hore-style track invaders etc. but surely So should be about $1.25. Not that I can afford to back him at the $1.60.

    Good punting.

  5. Big drifter today: $1.49 to $1.64

    Rain?

    I wouldn’t write More Joyous off.

  6. Crio

    Gull has given me a Saturday off thus I can enjoy the banter and insight availed here by such erudite gents as Elvis and your good self. May I start by saying I think the punters can collect tomorrow if they go the exotic all-up and don’t bet until 2.40.

    What is the ‘go’ with a 5.35 start for the Cox Plate? – ridiculous – Budge reckons it maybe the Asian betting market giving a sling to MVR – why don’t they make it a night meeting and collect from Sth Africa as well? All we need is a Vet check, a fallen horse, etc. to test Channel 9 (for those without cable TV)

    Thanks for your tip R4 – Snow Alert – I’ll be adding it to a Tri – I backed Poor Judge in the Toorak for a place acknowledging the better horse would win – and throwing in Gold Salute and Drumbeats and possibly Firebolt.

    The Russian mafia will be dining on Black Caviar and putting out Hot Danish’s with bucket loads of vodka unless Melito salutes first up ( Budge points out that she hasn’t won first up and has got the chockies thrice 2nd up) – If Melito is overs, then she gets my $

    I have no idea in the 1st leg of the quaddie – would have settled for an omen or a name akin to a vase – maybe the fav, 11 or 4

    R7 – my accountant has a horse in this called My Bentley – he declared it a certainty for the Cranbourne Cup – great run 11th from the turn to 2nd placegetter missing by 1/2 a head – bastard – I still did OK each all the same. The Curran trained Niptious adds some interest for me being in Kyneton. throw the winner in 2 and the Master and the first 4 and/or tri has been achieved – if only it was that easy

    Cox Plate – good luck to all the horses on getting a place – if it buckets rain I’ll go the quin of Wall Street and SYT

    no idea in R9 and need help – I see the top weight and Belsenica as potential winners and the emergencies Our Tigress and Zantelagh add much interest. Belsenica likes the track and the distance

    Elvis, Music Review may be a chance to snag a win at Wyong following it’s super 3rd at the same track but don’t the 1,2,4,5,6,8,16,17 have better cases – I have indulged in a few cans tonight so I maybe missing the essential ingredient you see – no doubt, Music review salutes and puts me out of the quaddie 1,4,7,11/ 2,6,11,12/5/1,2,5,6,15,16,17

    avoir

    very impressed with your writing CB

  7. Shane, it is raining here in Moonee Ponds but I’d not worry about the track. The late race fits Ch9 news and is a nudge towards a night meeting in the next few years. They’ll need to be careful pushing the feature back too far at other courses as they will end up with a cut up, deteriorating track with horses coursing wide.
    My Bentley is scratched.
    JTH, probably just a market drift to sniff interest and with some wary of rain. If you foresee a hot pace and more rain, Whobe is the obvious value.

  8. Freeza,
    Isn’t this the morning for Derby/Cup doubles before the Vase/Cup/Plate dinner-setting?
    Call me before 1030 if you want me to take any on course or get you top tote any bets today.

  9. Freeza, So Y T is $1.20 THE PLACE!

  10. mark freeman says:

    Thanks Crio, but re getting on on course am sticking with exotics at this stage. I’ve had a sneaky derby/cup nibble last night – Saddle the Stars $41 (big run in the Geelong Derby Trial and hopefully makes field) into Moudre $51 – am very keen on him in the Hotham Hcp next Sat, and I reckon he’s shaping very much like Shocking last year and Leica Falcon a couple of years earlier.

    Re the 1.20 the place, am just going down to the mortgage broker….

  11. Do that,mate, but take a brolly…still raining here. Remember it was a “road” when So You Dato won last year!

  12. Craig Down says:

    Mark

    I’m glad someone else is in love with the POW (Pride of Warrnambool). I really like Moudre’s chances in the Lexus next week (particularly if Precedence is not there).

    He’s my sneaky Cup horse as well.

    Good luck.

    CD

  13. mark freeman says:

    Magnificent when the punt works out perfectly. And amazing how profitable the punt can be when you take a simple position of potting the second favourite. In this case Gai was defying the golden rule – horses need practice over the mile and a quarter, you can’t expect them to handle it first time no matter how classy they are.

    And so it proved, classy and gutsy as she is, she was overrun by the big tough boys in the last 100. Got the Tri and 1st four multiple times and on the NSW tote – where of course they all put MJ in, tri was 69 vs 52 here, and first four 237 vs SuperTab’s 137.

    And wasn’t Bart’s boy breathtaking in his dominance.

    All is forgiven from the annual cash slaughter at the Heath, we’re playing with theirs at HQ, and Craig we’d better get some on the Lexus fixed on the POW when the field’s drawn up Weds.

  14. Craig Down says:

    Mark

    I’ll be right behind you in the queue.

    CD

  15. johnharms says:

    Beuatifully played Freezer.

  16. Still non-plussed that I had nothing on Lady Lynette @ $14. Clear top pick!
    Good to see that you’ve hit form Freeza.
    Tony, Did you back Sound Journey? It was clearly a swooper’s race but my bet, Snow Alert, was not well handled.

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