Almanac Racing: CAULFIELD CUP DAY 2010

The key question for punters, of course, is what sort of track will be dished up at Caulfield for Cup Day this Saturday? Swoopers were doomed last week and then the track chopped to Heavy at the irrelevant midweeker (which must go). We’ve had perfect drying weather today (Thursday) but the forecast is dire! It is probably safest to look for on pacers who can handle the track. The rail was true for the two Guineas meets and goes out 6m this weekend. It is an unfortunate conundrum as for many people this is their initial foray in to the annual puntfest.

The fields are OK but not nearly as good as the next two Saturdays will offer. The Cup itself looks below par and, again, I reckon that the two races preceding the Quaddy are the pick of the card.

Greed once again means a 10 race programme but, other than for staff and soaks, the first three are irrelevant.

R4, The Norman Robinson (Gr3), arguably qualifies as a modern-day “time honoured” – how’s that Flynnie? This and next week’s Vase are the Derby guides so it will be interesting to see these stake their claims. Retrieve (1) has great form and deserves favouritism. Rekindled Interest (5) was an unlucky eye-catcher last week but will need some breaks if he goes back. Altius (3) has the breeding, looks and form to improve but is probably Flemington focused. The value runner is Mackadoo (4) who races on pace and is a winner here – our key criteria. Put him and the toppy in exotics.

R5, the Sprint (Gr2), is a beauty, with very confusing formlines. Eagle Falls (1) was specked to beat Haylist and has run into Starspangledetc and Wanted. Definitely Ready (6) still has a massive Kav boom. Dubleanny (7) looks bulletproof at the track and distance. There are heaps of chances here…in fact, all runners have claims. I’m reckoning on a reckless pace and for Set for Fame (3) to close late over an unsuitably short trip – this is a really, really good horse.

R6, the 1400m race (Gr3) is fascinating. All Silent (2) will be juicy odds but I’ll stick to my guns of only backing him at HQ. McClintock (4), though poorly drawn, looks a good chance to me.

The Quaddy starts with an awful 2000m Gr3 Handicap…thus no bet nor Quaddy.

The Cup is tough. Shocking is racing so well, but I’ll wait for Flemington. I have wasted plenty on Faint Perfume and, though tempted by her blinkers, will again wait for the bigger course. Metal Bender has the form and class to win. I rated him a Cox Plate horse last year and his prep has been perfect. The weight is an issue. He is, though, the safest bet in a raffle.

The Gr2 Tristarc, R9, features the glamorous and popular Hot Danish. She is a great mare in terrific form but you must wait to see how the track is playing – you cannot forecast this race at all. If you must take speculators, go with Moody’s Live in Sin (13) who will give them something to chase. This is a very good race but you’d need to sit down beforehand to put the track bias in to perspective before stepping in to the ring.

Little Gem (10) is making a huge class leap to tackle the last, but the recent M.Price acquisition has Bossy on board and may be a value get-out.

If you are not going to Caulfield – and I must concede it can be an unpleasant experience on Cup Day – follow TVN’s fantastic coverage and source the conditions and chances and be prepared to be flexible.

Take some flexi quinellas and trifectas as there are some open races and hopes for big payouts from huge pools.

As an addendum, regulars to this forum might recall a connection with the well performed King Carnage, so may be interested to know that he returns this Saturday at Bendigo. A big risk, I’d say, though he’s pretty good. 60.5kgs, a non-claimer and first up on a soft track equals be wary. We’re hopeful rather than expectant.

That’s probably the motto for the punt this week. There are plenty that I’ll be watching with an eye to them getting to their target races on the wider expanses of Flemington. The challenge will be to still have a punting bank by then.

Good luck! I’ll be swinging the Turfbet bag and, of course, welcoming correspondence there or via this site.

Comments

  1. At 10a.m. Friday this track is already a HEAVY8 with leaden skies…bog trackers please. Look, for example, at a horse like Very Cherry, a maiden by Anabaa in R3,which will relish the mud.

  2. Crio – I like Faint Perfume. Bart’s brought it in nicely with a few nondescript midfield efforts of late. Suppose you can still get 9/1?

  3. Crio, which form guide gives info about where a horse usually runs ie: on the pace, trails etc. I think the front runners will be hard to catch tommorow (Shocking runs on any surface)but if it keeps raining I think I might give the punt a miss in Melb and look for some class inter state which is never easy.
    cheers
    TR

  4. Paul Richards does speed maps in the Winning Post.

  5. I’m hoping for a washout at bendigo. What happens to the Cup if Caulfield gets washed out? Would they reschedule to Monday/Tuesday?? Fair chance of it happening I reckon !!

  6. Mic Rees just posed the same question Budge.
    My cryptic-ish answer is…”What chance of the pre-booked, marquees and lunchers getting a refund?”
    My guess is they’ll start and wait for the jockeys to complain.
    Geelong would still be a GOOD3 on that new track if they want to run it somewhere!

  7. Is this where we wheel out the tale of the time the Queen went to the Valley, they ran the main race and then called them off?

  8. HEAVY9 now posted.
    Hot Danish won’t run.

  9. Crio,

    I have chosen the Cup tomorrow to roll out a new punting initiative. It is the “Bizzaro Plan” I always start my selection process by eliminating those that “cant” win, by virtue of pedigree, jockey, trainer, or whatever else irks me and set about convincing myself one of those remaining is a certainty and generally lose accordingly. With the “Bizzaro Plan”, I concentrate on those that are eliminated in the initial process and and readdress their merit.

    In the Cup, the BP has come up with Triple Honour. Loves the wet, has won over $2M, races on the pace and has a good, in form trainer (forget the selected, back the neglected)

    He was wiped pre BP as he is regarded as a miler, but good milers can win or at least run a good race in a Caulfield Cup. Think Northerly, Cole Diesel, Northerly, Imposera and Northerly.

    Also, he has won to 2200 metres at Stakes level (albeit Qld) and Waller ran him in the 2000m Craven Plate on the same card as the Epsom, seemingly with the Cup in mind and he has finished close to M Bender a couple of times this prep.

    In addition his 54kg is the least he has carried since he won the Doncaster on a heavy track in April 08.

    I’ve tried him at the $35, and I reckon he is over the odds.

    Only other one I like on a NON Bizzaro level is Marquardt in the 9th and I will try the well bred, well trained Dizlago, who’s dam Dizelle won the AJC Oaks on a slow track.

    Good luck.

  10. So am I to understand that you are now making your selections from those that were previously eliminated under your usual tipping plan??
    Seems sound to me.

  11. My only issue with Triple Honour is that he keeps getting beaten…quite a hindrance to successful punting.But I agree on lots of levels and would certainly have him in a flexi-tri if I were so bold.
    Got a tip tonight for Marquardt.

    Love the Bizzaro concept.

  12. Budge,

    Correct. My punting record under my usual tipping plan speaks for itself. If the ones outside my original selections keep winning, the money lies behind those with the pen through them.

  13. If only you could use your powers for good instead of evil…..

  14. Budge,

    I am going where no man has been before, unchartered water. Let’s just see what unfolds. If it works, I am going to have to switch mind sets on and off. It’s scary, but that’s the punt.

  15. Good luck Elvis. This could revolutionise the punt as we know it and place you at the forefront of this new movement.

  16. Crio / Budge.

    The litmus test.

    Caulfield race 9: MARQUARDT – Normal selection
    MONTANA FLYER – Bizzaro plan selection

  17. Budge

    “The forefront of this new movement” That is magnificent. Thanks for your support.

  18. Marquardt might get back too far for mine.
    Tonight’s leanings are..
    R3 No6 Very Cherry
    R7 No5 Rainbow Styling
    R9 No13 Live in Sin
    R10 No10 Little Gem

    what an unimpressive line up of tips for a feature day. Think of the cattle we’ll be pumping up next week!

  19. R4 No4
    Put R7 No7 in multis

  20. I’ve got a bit of a Bizzaro myself – warming to Monaco Consul at the odds.

  21. :) My horsey came third!!

  22. John Butler says:

    Danni

    Well done. Although I think you have more cred if you don’t call it a horsey.

  23. 22- lol, cred?
    There was no thought process to my choice!
    It was as simple as me just picking the horse with the number nine on it! ;)

  24. Danielle, Are you sure you weren’t following my bizzaro tip (20)?

  25. 24- lol yes Budge im sure, since i was following my ‘choose anything that associates with Jack Anthony’ tip. :)

  26. Surely if that was the criteria, you would have backed No. 1

  27. Sorry- cheap shot. Congrats on the premiership. I’m happy to offer my congratulations to Collingwood fans at intervals no shorter than every 20 years.

  28. Peter Flynn says:

    Descerado, why don’t you come to your senses
    You’ve been out ridin’ fences,
    for so long – now….

    The first leg of the Cups double has saluted.

    Bring on Flemington

    So You Think
    Shocking
    Shootout
    Drunken Sailor
    Precedence
    Moudre

    May save on Profound Beauty.

  29. Shocking…Flemington horse.

  30. $5 E/W Set For Fame was the bet of the year with DefReady the pace. I stayed off the punt! Baker’s horse was also exrtraordinary odds.
    It was an awful day at Caulfield. Very cold. Lacklustre.
    Unfortunately the tip is a 630 last race next week!

  31. Whatever beats Shocking in the Cup wins. Just load up!!

    Elvis – I see the normal and bizarro plan were equally successful. is there a middle ground or do we have to go super-bizarro being those you initally thought had absolutely no hope. Perhaps too early to call the plan a failure.
    Whatever my plan is called its crap anyway. Again, we weren’t far off a good collect. Harris Tweed could quite easily have gone in and the pick4 paid $20k.

    We’ll set the traps again for next week and see what we can catch!

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