The much vaunted Australian Guineas meeting, slated for Saturday in perfect conditions at Flemington, presents an interesting but by no means outstanding card, seemingly sandwiched between the feature Diamond Day from last week and the hyped Super Saturday still to come.
These are a tough bunch of 3 yr olds to rate and the quality of the Guineas may only become apparent in retrospect. Early hopes have either dropped out or lost some lustre – topweight Anacheeva, for example, an early markets leader, is now viewed as a 16/1 chance. But there are reservations surrounding the resultant favourites – classy WA colt Playing God, a winner against older horses and with B. Prebble up, looks a safer prospect than outstanding unbeaten SA filly Southern Speed which leaps up in class and out of gate 20 for Claire Lindop, and the Kiwi boom filly, We Can Say it Now, which has solid WFA form but looks “unders” to me. In the end I might settle on Enjin Number Nine, Ollie’s mount, which was spectacularly backed and started farcically short here a fortnight back when it ended up on the worse part of the track. Such is the reactionary nature of these things that this handsome colt is now an $11 chance. As always, I’ll throw in Mr Chard to my multis and place a watch on Vasil’s promising Under The Eiffel. Looks a field Quaddy leg.
Needing to go skinny in the other legs, it is probably safe to put in the obvious favourites, Aloha (R5, No3), Master Harry (R7, No4) and Launay (R8, No7) and any other significant market movers – I’ll get the goss for Broken (R7 No3) at MV races tonight and post if they seem keen (P.S. put it in).
The rest of the meeting has some surprisingly small fields. It’s hard not to see Golden Archer winning the first. The $4.20 looks luxury but it is best to wait for the money even if it means getting a shave off top fluc.
The second and third, though with some good horses, are laughably small fields where a muddling pace can ruin good plans. Avoid.
If you want to get more involved in the punt, cast an eye to the Warwick Farm formguide and their time honoured Chipping Norton Stakes day. The feature is always a quality mile and it can be a tricky track. Melito will start fav and look for support for grand Theseo , Maluckyday, Once Were Wild and a host of others. A terrific race.
It’s a desperately hard quaddy up there, so maybe go skinny with the fav in the Surround (More Strawberries), wide in the mile, then good luck beyond that….try 1,2,6,11 closing with 2 and 9.
Keep some ammunition for next week!