Another week with a myriad of discussion points – goal umpires, knee injuries, club “mergers” and the never ending saga which is the Essendon drug story. But the one to take my eye, or ear to be more specific is the introduction of other language to footy vernacular. For the most part the media have been the blame in particular the use of the word catch for what we know as a mark. David Parkin was to blame for the “corridor”. However I was horrified to night to hear Damian Hardwick refer Jack Riewoldt as a striker! In our game it is a full forward , spearhead, focal point and I will even accept talisman, but striker is very specific to the world game! I suppose next we will hear of Bryce Gibbs and Isaac Smith being wide-receivers, Heath Shaw as a running back, Dustin Fletcher as a goal keeper. Anyway enough of that, it is time I got back to my structures!
Seems like seven is as good as this tipster can do at the moment, falling over on undefeated sides in Essendon and Port. Mind you it was suggested the Bombers did shop at good value. On normal circumstances many of this week’s encounters are “cut and dried”, however the advent of injuries to spearheads and other key players makes selection tricky.
Shushing the Piste ($1.22) vs Jack’s Toys ($5.10)
The Pies have been widely regarded as not only a side with great depth but also great ability to introduce new players successfully into the team. This has really been put to the test in the last few weeks and perhaps having too many of those inexperienced players in the team is now taking its toll. Notwithstanding that they still boast players at the top end of the competition, it is up to Pendles and Bucks now to take the skis off a few of them. Up against the Saints this week they should be able to at least rectify the win-loss situation, the Pies have issues but St Kilda have plenty more. The odds are skewed too far to Collingwood, but not by enough to think St Kilda could win and they cannot be considered an investment opportunity.
You’re so Vain ($1.01) vs Dubbo ($50.00)
Anti-Obesity and Tanning Drugs! What wouldn’t they do? But they are not required this week as the Giants will be shunned either further west!
Bellerive ($1.44) vs Under the Koch ($3.20)
Who would have thought that North v Port in Hobart would be the match of the round! My tipping so far has shunned the lads from Alberton, but they are now irrepressible. On the other hand North are playing well but just not winning. Then to confuse matters Port take to the field without their coach at the venue, he has clearly had a massive impact. I am sure the Kangas will be out to redress their poor conversion rate from last week and I expect them to be good enough to hold Port out. However that Port midfield has quality and the odds on this game are way too far apart, North to win but $3.00 on Port is fair value.
Pinot Purveyors ($4.30) vs Oh, Cyril ($1.29)
These two teams played a preliminary final last year decided by less than a kick, yet we have a massive discrepancy in the odds. An indication really of how poorly Adelaide are going and also of how much the loss of Tippett and now Walker will affect them. Yes the Hawks have lost the magic of Cyril Rioli, it will hurt them but not as much as Walker to the Crows. Sando will need try and manufacture goals, while Hawthorn will have normal forward structure. And we know that manufacturing in Adelaide is struggling. Hawthorn to win, but Adelaide are a fair price above $4.
Sad Sack Jack ($3.00) vs Pivotonians ($1.48)
So a Tiger spearhead has cracked the sads and shown emotion – when did Richo return? The issue should not be about his emotions, but about how he is not contributing to the team as expressed by his coach. The reality though is this will be a great test for Richmond and in particular their midfield, the core ball winners for the Cats are not blessed with pace but this has been addressed with some blistering speed outside. The Tiggers rate their speed. However I remain sceptical about the quality of the Richmond defence and can’t see how they will contain Hawkins and Podsiadly. If the predicted rain arrives that Tiger speed will be negated by Geelong’s great wet weather skills. Geelong to go 6-0, but the Tiges some hope.
Mermaid Waters ($2.94) vs Greco-Roman ($1.47)
Freo are missing 4 of their top 6 players for this match, what effect will it have on the team. Not much for Pavlich and Sandilands, Fyffe has been clamped down on for most of the year but I think the loss of Hill will could be very important. He can get off the chain and provide some flair to the team. This will be a great test for Gold Coast. Crowley is one of the best stoppers in the business and will go to Ablett, Bluey will need a plan to win with limited contributions from Gazza. Not to say he won’t play well, but others must be prepared step up if required. They can win it and represent a fair bet at $2.70 and above, but suspect that Freo will be able to hold them out.
Clarendon St ($1.09) vs Brunswick St ($9.60)
The odds again look too far apart given the respective form from last week, however Brisbane have had only one win at the SCG in their last eight attempts. Expect it will be 1 from 9 at 4pm on Sunday.
Spooks ($1.04) vs Watts Up ($21.00)
The spies at Carlton would have been further heartened to overhear of the further spate of injuries to senior Demons. The Blues are still a work in progress and whilst they put Adelaide away early last week, there were plenty of poor patches. The Dees though will be up against it without Jamar and Clark, however I do expect a bold showing in support of their coach after the statements of David Schwarz during the week. But they just don’t have the cattle – Blues to win.
Nic Nat Back ($1.07) vs Not such a Goodes boy ($13.50)
A home game against a cellar dweller is just what Woosha would have ordered, whilst I doubt they can win the flag from outside the top 4 I am certain they can’t from outside the top 8. Maybe Nic Nat will bring them into form to look like a top team, but collectively they need to all improve. Meanwhile after a brave effort against the Cats, the Bullies would have loved an easier assignment than Subiaco! West Coast are yet to win there this year – they should break that sequence.
The Horses are on the Track
Well no big follow up to Gai and Singo show! At least it keeps racing in papers without Black Caviar – but for all the wrong reasons. Hard to take sides when you’re not a fan of either of them! But I was on All Too Hard so no complaints from me. This week Group 1 action in Adelaide with the South Australian Derby (Race 7, 2500m, 3yo), Group 1 status is questionable. That is why my top selection is Hvasstan who has been competing at the highest level, Gerontius finished 4th in the ATC Derby which I also great for form for this. Shoreham has had a solid preparation and is a last start winner at headquarters and Hioctdane is the best of the locals coming off an easy win last week. Of course will be looking for any excuse to back Hesnotthemessiah!
Race 7 Selections 1-4-3-2
A slightly undermanned Friars outfit were not good enough against Old Geelong in the Seniors, whilst the Under 19s went down to the Northern Blues. This week at Friar Park the seniors face the Panthers from Old Mentone who also suffered defeat last weekend and the Under 19s head to Stradbroke Park to take on Old Xavs.
Go Friars, Go Blues,