AFL PUNTERS, I HAVE IT!: A 100%, GUARANTEED, FOOL PROOF SYSTEM!!!!!
by Peter Zitterschlager
Friends, it’s taken me all of my many years to crack it, but I finally have. It’s been an despairing journey into the abyss, a trek to the edge of madness, but at long last I’ve broken through. At long last I have a system that is fail safe; at long long last I have alchemy at my fingertips. I, you, me, everyone … we’re all gonna be rich!
Before I share my discovery with you, for the purposes of perspective, I’d first like to walk you through the evolutionary steps that led to this moment. As you’ll see, they are not too dissimilar to the ones taken by humankind in its development, the only difference being there wasn’t a Monolith like in Stanley Kubricks 2001 in my situation, so where ape-humans feasted on Tapir meat from that point, I spent a considerably longer period eating nits out of my neighbors fur. Not that great a setback really, as nits are high in protein, but for the sake of operating on an even playing field, it would have been nice to have been given the same ethereal leg up that they received. But that’s just me having a whinge, isn’t it? (isn’t it????). Anyway, those evolutionary steps …
1: Me the Emotional Punter.
‘Me the Emotional Punter’ was as primitive as he was reckless. He bet with his heart and not his head, and in the end, I took in the colon. He was passionate about Footscray and he put his money where his mouth was. Unfortunately he had a mouth the size of the Pilbara, and putting his money there soon burnt a dirty big hole in my pockets. ‘Me the Emotional Punter’ was my first foray into punting and he taught my later incarnations a valuable lesson; namely, don’t bet with your heart if it beats for Footscray! Evolutionarily speaking, he operated on all fours and had only just recently crawled out of the slime. Needless to say, I never reminisce about him.
2: Me the Mug Punter
‘Me the Mug Punter’ had the hugest ego on him. He thought he was some kind of actuary or something. He would weigh up the form of teams each week, sizing up their ins and outs, their history against opponents, their value for money. He would then delude himself that he had the acumen to outwit the bookies. Of course, he didn’t; of course he’d lose the shirt on his back each week, only to be back the very next week chasing his loses. What a schmuck. Even more embarrassing, though, was how filthy he’d be when logic betrayed him. Get this for an example: “If Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, then why the f— didn’t Team A beat Team C!” He would actually agonize over that whenever Team C got up. Can you believe it? He was a complete hopeless case and another operating on all fours. Whenever I come across him, I cross the street.
3: Me the Scientific Punter
‘Me the Scientific Punter’ was a complete bore. He would corner people at parties and hypothesize at them droningly until their eyes glazed over. He had this theory that if you could beat the past, you could beat the future. He got so obsessed with this that he compiled 20 years of TAB statistics for his systems. This was done by spending countless afternoons at the State Library wading through newspaper microfiche. You should have seen him, feverishly documenting the odds, fiendishly rubbing his hands, believing he had the betting system to beat all betting systems. It was pathetic. What he didn’t realize is that he’d fallen for the gambler’s fallacy. For those who don’t know it, it works something like this: if you toss a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the next time you toss it is still a 50 50 bet. The person who falls for the gambler’s fallacy thinks otherwise. He/she believes tails is more likely to come up, as though the coin has a memory (ha ha!). And that’s the way ‘Me the Scientific Punter’ operated. He developed his systems betting on tails in these scenarios; albeit in a sophisticated way, but nevertheless, betting on tails. Heads, of course, came up time and again in these situations (in which time he’d almost lost the roof over our head!), and he was soon back to the drawing board. In a bittersweet twist of fate, his fossil remains were found with that very same drawing board.
4: Me the Philosophical Punter
‘Me the Philosophical Punter’ was a killjoy. He operated outside the spirit of the punt and took all the fun out of it. His approach was to use punting as a compensation. This meant he’d punt on the team he didn’t want to win – that’s right: the one he didn’t want to win. By doing this he argued he’d compensate his emotions if the team he favored lost. When he told other punters about this they would look at him the way dogs do when shown a card trick. He would go on to explain that it was about taking the highs and lows out of the equation – that he was trying to achieve an equilibrium. He would then philosophize that this way he’d always be a winner, in that if Footscray won he’d have an emotional win, and in the case that they lost, he’d have a financial one. He would then quote Socrates or Neitzsche and talk about the meaningless of existence. He’d then lose himself in his thoughts and tune out from all things gambling. He’d then imagine himself floating up to a parallel universe, one where Footscray won back to back premierships, where Test Cricket was the worlds premier sport, and where girls in bikinis fulfilled his every fantasy. And when I last checked in with him, he was still there.
5: Me the Wily Punter
‘Me the Wily Punter” was just a notch short of where I am now. He had a nose for a bargain and was always kept one eye on shadowy bookmakers. His best work was with the Pakistan cricket team. Whenever they were in impregnable positions, he’d throw everything he had on the opposition. It paid off time and again. As for the AFL, his high watermark was his Collingwood system. His instinct was that there was a lot of emotional punting on football games, and because Collingwood had the most fans, this might artificially affect their market value. Unfortunately, ‘Me the Scientific Punter’ eventually proved him wrong (and this is a fact!!) and now he’s back in the pack. All the same, the current me is still on good terms with him, and we speak often.
And that now brings us up to date – that now brings us to ‘Me the Genius Punter!’
‘Me the Genius Punter’ keeps it simple. ‘Me the Genius Punter’ operates on a higher plain. ‘Me the Genius Punter’ has a 100%, guaranteed, fool proof system. And here it is:
Always, always bet against Richmond …. in a crunch game*!!!!!
It’s beautiful isn’t it? Enjoy your winnings!
(*Note: ‘Me the Genius Punter’ would be remiss not to recognize the infinitesimally small contribution his mate Mick made to this system. All the same, ‘Me the Genius Punter’ is only doing so after seeking a legal opinion on the matter.)